Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Tories, tax and trust – a warning from history

I was on the Question Time panel last night, and suspected that the issue of National Insurance might crop up – and that Karen Bradley, the Culture Secretary, would be sent out to defend the indefensible. Like all ministers, she has to repeat Philip Hammond’s bizarre claim that the Tories had not broken a manifesto pledge. That when they repeatedly promised not to raise National Insurance they meant only part of the National Insurance. The 2015 Tory manifesto contained no such caveat (I brought a copy along to the studio) and it’s impossible for any minister to claim otherwise. Hammond has already been accused of ‘lying’ – a strong word, but he should not be surprised if a politician makes a demonstrably untrue claim.

I wonder how many other Tory ministers will be sent into studios over the weekend, ordered to deploy this fictitious line of argument. Marr, Murnaghan, Neil, Peston, Pienaar – all will be waiting with sharpened knives for the minister foolish enough to tell their viewers that there was no manifesto pledge precluding a National Insurance rise.

The first question from the Question Time audience in Sunderland was a more subtle one: whether pledges can be reneged upon in the name of fairness. My answer was that yes, there might be circumstances that you can abandon a manifesto pledge. I’d like to see the triple-lock pension pledge removed, for example, because it’s too expensive and is intensifies cuts on the working-aged. But to do this, you need to level with the public. To admit that you’re breaking a pledge, and explain why. But to break a manifesto pledge and then pretend you haven’t by citing non-existent small print is so much more damaging to the Conservative Party because voters will conclude that Tories lie.

Such a reputation can be hard to shake off.

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