After much Whitehall spin, the official figures are now in. Net migration in 2022 is estimated to have hit 745,000, a huge revision upward from an earlier estimate of 606,000. That figure only fell slightly by 10 per cent to 672,000 for 2023, as a total of 1.2 million people arrived to live in the UK in the 12 months up until June. Today’s net migration figure is more than three times the level when the 2019 Conservative manifesto pledged to ensure ‘overall numbers come down.’
The reaction of Conservative MPs to these figures has not been a happy one. The New Conservatives group of 25 right-wingers has released a collective statement, noting that the high levels of migration are ‘a consistent trend’ caused ‘directly by the policy decisions of this government.’ They warn that ‘this really is “do or die” for our party’ and urge ministers to today publish an emergency set of measures to meet the pledge by the time of next year’s election.
Public anger is not confined to just this group of MPs. Neil O’Brien, who served as a minister in Rishi Sunak’s government until last week, posted on Twitter/X that ‘In every election since 1992 we have promised to reduce migration. Today’s extraordinary numbers mean the PM must now take immediate and massive action to do that to do just that.’ In private, others are even more critical, with some irritated by Home Secretary James Cleverly’s claim that the government remains ‘completely committed’ to reducing levels of legal migration. ‘They’re certainly taking their time about it,’ remarks one solidly centre-right backbencher.
In May, Rishi Sunak vowed to bring down net migration below the level he ‘inherited’ upon becoming Prime Minister and his supporters can point to today’s 10 per cent drop as proof that he has delivered on that pledge. It is true too that much of the increase in migration came under Boris Johnson, who showed little desire to curb the number of legal arrivals to the UK. Neither argument though is likely to get much of a hearing, given that today’s fall is only thanks to a staggering ONS revision upwards of last year’s figures.
‘A technical triumph’, is how one MP dismisses today’s drop. Further measures will be needed if Sunak is to prove that he is serious about bringing down legal migration, in addition to ‘stopping the boats’.
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