Theresa May will tonight face a confidence vote by her MPs. Conservative MPs will vote on her fate early evening – and the results are expected to be counted immediately. The arrival of 48 letters took government figures by surprise last night. While it was clear May’s decision to shelve the vote on her Brexit deal had gone badly with chunks of Tory MPs ministers had seen its postponement as crucial to her short term survival. Now May will have to fight to stay on until that vote.
Speaking to MPs in the Commons last night, it became clear that the hostilities towards May are far wider ranging than just the European Research Group. The Brexiteer members of that group were bullish that they would get to 48 letters this time – thanks to eurosceptics like Owen Patterson joining the fray. But those Conservatives on the Remain side are fast running out of patience too; ‘We’re beginning to think she is part of the problem’. Whether it’s enough MPs for May to lose the vote is another matter. Those around her remain confident she will win – but there is a growing sense among MPs that she has no plan and it’s worth taking a chance on something else. May is immune for a whole year if she wins – that will make some MPs cautious to back her.
As I say in the i paper today, what’s not helping matters is the fact that May’s decision to postpone the vote led to talk that there is time to start a Tory leadership contest and have it done by the time MPs return from Christmas: ‘If nothing is happening until mid January, who’s to say we can’t use that time to get a new leader in place?’ May’s critics are telling MPs it could be done swiftly and easily in the timeframe with speed elimination rounds of candidates in order to whittle them down to the final two before Parliament rises for Christmas. The final two would then be picked in time go to the membership over Christmas. While party figures would most likely be reluctant to speed through the hustings at too great a rate, there’s already talk going on of how to make a Christmas leadership contest work.
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