Tory MPs might have appeared keen to support the PM after his surprise EU bill when they spoke in the Commons this afternoon. But behind the scenes the party is in a pretty precarious situation. Open unrest is being held back by two things: a realisation among backbenchers that they do need to hunker down as a by-election approaches and the General Election draws nearer, and the Prime Minister’s pledge that ‘we are not paying a sum anything like that’. But neither is guaranteed to keep critics quiet forever.
Backbenchers point out that the current party loyalty at the moment is motivated by a desire to beat Labour – and a belief that the Conservatives really can do that. ‘What’s the point of being loyal for six months if you think you are going to lose: it’ll be each man for himself,’ predicts one MP, who believes that many MPs would start to think they were going to lose if Britain found itself forced to pay a significant bill, even if the Prime Minister had secured a reduction. Ukip would find this irresistible on the doorstep. And if the Tories do lose Rochester, which MPs are becoming increasingly nervous will be the case, then the doubts about a win in May will increase.
Andrew Bridgen, a former Tory rebel who has recently turned loyal, sees this as a threat to the party – and a challenge to David Cameron:
‘It’s a huge threat and the timing is terrible for us with the general election, but it’s also a great opportunity. The Prime Minister has the opportunity to do not only the right thing but what the British people want and demand, which is to stand up for British interests and hardworking British taxpayers.’
Whatever happens, Britain will have to pay a bill of some sort, which the Prime Minister acknowledged in the Chamber, although MPs felt his responses were rather woolly on what the eventual bill would look like. Another eurosceptic MP says:
‘This is risible. It’s like the Grand Old Duke of York. I’m not sure how far up the hill we have got this afternoon. But I’m certain we will be back down shortly to hand over a cheque. It won’t be a significant drop. Combined with the European Arrest Warrant, this is dangerous territory.’
Some rebellious types think that the eventual bill cannot go higher than £400 million, which seems a near impossible demand when it is currently £1.7 billion. But David Cameron’s aides have already passed on intelligence gathered on the backbenches that if the bill is paid in full or with an insignificant reduction, there would be ‘not 46 but 70 letters’ going to Graham Brady demanding a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister. They told him that this weekend: at least he knew the challenge ahead of him when he set out his position in the Chamber this afternoon. The question now is not just whether a compromise can be hammered out with the EU Commission over a reduction in the bill, but whether a compromise can be hammered out with backbenchers over what an acceptable reduction would be.
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