Tory truce weathers the Autumn Statement

One of the most striking parts of Jeremy Hunt’s performance in the Commons chamber yesterday was how quiet MPs on the backbenches behind him were. There was little in the way of cheering as the Chancellor used his Autumn Statement to set out a series of tax rises and spending cuts. The front pages today reflect the unappetising package Hunt presented – with the Daily Mail accusing the Tories of ‘soaking the strivers’ and the Daily Telegraph lead headline quoting an economist who says the Chancellor has combined ‘the rhetoric of George Osborne and the policies of Gordon Brown’.

Yet there is little sign yet of a serious Tory rebellion against the measures. It’s certainly the case that many Tory MPs are unhappy about the direction of travel of mass tax rises. Senior Tories who served in Liz Truss’s government – such as former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and former levelling up secretary Simon Clarke – have made clear that they believe spending cuts are preferable to tax rises when it comes to filling the fiscal black hole. Yet while Hunt claimed to his party that he will do both, there is serious doubt as to whether the bulk of spending cuts he announced will ever come to pass given they are due to come into effect after the next election. Current polling suggests a comfortable win for Labour. 

Former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg used a Channel 4 interview last night to criticise the tax rises – suggesting Hunt had taken the easy option. However, crucially, he said he still supported Sunak and would therefore vote for it given it is a confidence matter. One Tory MP sums up the response among his colleagues to the Autumn Statement as ‘all in all, meh’. Their point is that while Conservative MPs don’t like parts of it, there is a sense that it could have been worse. The announcement of new funding for schools is seen as a ray of light by MPs when it comes to areas they could focus on at the next election. What’s more, the dire economic warnings – with the OBR predicting that UK households face the largest fall in living standards in six decades – mean that even those who find it hard to stomach the measures aren’t sure what the alternative is.