Tory unease builds over the Northern Ireland protocol

Will Boris Johnson ever trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol? The Prime Minister has been under increasing pressure to do so from the right flank of his MPs – particularly in the wake of partygate. Conservative MPs have been going into No. 10 with a list of demands in return for their continuing support. However, the situation in Ukraine has moved the dial for many in government. 

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has reportedly backed a delay in triggering Article 16 and instead wants to help Northern Irish businesses with an ‘economic stimulus’ package, including tax cuts. There was exasperation last night when the government brought forward plans to change Brexit customs regulations to reference Great Britain instead of the United Kingdom – thereby in theory excluding Northern Ireland. But the change was quickly pulled by the Whips’ Office after there was kickback from Tory MPs. Government officials play down the significance of the changes – insisting that they ‘do not have any bearing on the government’s intention to re-negotiate the protocol or the government’s policy of providing unfettered access from NI to GB’.

The incident offers a taste of the growing unease over the protocol. Analysis by the European Scrutiny Committee of MPs has today found the protocol to be ‘untenable’ if it is not ‘repaired, replaced, or removed’. Yet the window for replacing it anytime soon is closing. If Johnson wished to trigger Article 16, it would need to be in the next few weeks before campaigning gets properly underway for the Northern Irish elections. To do so during this period could be interpreted as interfering.

Despite early assurances from Johnson that the protocol would not involve checks on goods leaving Northern Ireland to Great Britain, there is a clear acceptance in government these days that the current system is not working. Many in Northern Ireland feel as though they are being treated differently to the rest of the UK. And the situation could be further exacerbated. Unionist politicians are quick to point out that were the Tories to opt for Labour’s preferred policy of cutting VAT on energy bills, it would not stretch to Northern Ireland as under the protocol Northern Ireland must follow EU VAT rules.

Given that ministers view triggering Article 16 as increasingly unlikely given the situation in Ukraine (they are keen to avoid further instability as well as conflict with EU allies) the next option is negotiations. The idea of an ‘economic stimulus’ package, as suggested by Truss could prove very costly to the taxpayer. While both sides say the mood music has improved since Truss took over from her predecessor David Frost, there has been little change when it comes to the substance of the talks. If Johnson fails to bring about changes to the current arrangement, the right of his party will only grow louder.