It took Donald Trump six months, at least six useless phone calls with Vladimir Putin and more than a thousand Ukrainian civilians killed since the start of his second term for the realisation to finally hit: Russia has no intention of ending the war. Today, the American President took a U-turn from praising Putin and unveiled a new plan to arm Ukraine. Nato allies will purchase ‘billions of dollars’ worth of US military equipment to send to Ukraine, with 17 Patriot air defence systems already being prepared for delivery. Trump will also impose 100 per cent tariffs on Russia and its trade partners if Putin doesn’t make a deal to end the war in 50 days.
Ukraine’s best chance is to use this time – and America’s weapons – to stabilise the front line
With Mark Rutte, Nato Secretary General, seated beside him in the Oval Office, Trump said he was ‘very unhappy’ that his conversations about the peace deal with Putin were followed by Russian bombings in Ukraine:
I speak to Putin a lot about getting this done, and I always hang up and say, ‘That was a nice phone call.’ I go home and tell the First Lady, ‘I spoke with Vladimir today. We had a wonderful conversation.’ She says, ‘Oh, really? Another city was just bombed … I don’t wanna say he is an assassin, but he is a tough guy. It’s been proven over the years. He fooled a lot of people. He fooled Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden, but he didn’t fool me.’
Ukrainians will greet this news with great relief: their country’s survival has relied on the erratic moods within Trump’s administration that have led to three halts in military aid since January. Now, Ukraine can expect a continuous flow of weapons to the front line. The 17 Patriots interceptors will protect civilians as well as soldiers from Russian missile attacks. But this new deal doesn’t mean that Trump has taken Ukraine’s side – rather, he is frustrated with Putin’s unwillingness to stop.
When Trump failed to quickly deliver any kind of a ceasefire, he had two options to choose from: either to abandon Ukraine and risk its collapse during his term or continue Joe Biden’s policy of aiding its resistance. Both options must have been hard to swallow, given that Trump repeatedly lashed out at Biden for the chaotic retreat from Afghanistan and for pouring billions of taxpayer dollars into Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky handed Trump a way out at the Nato summit two weeks ago, offering a scheme under which the EU pays for American-made weapons and gifts them to Ukraine. It was a dream business offer Trump couldn’t resist.
As for Putin, Trump has given him a 50 day deadline to finish the summer offensive. The Russian troops seized about 215 sq miles of territory last month, a record this year. They are yet to make a breakthrough but much can change before September.
Putin’s plan to crush Ukraine when American aid dries up may have failed, but he still has an overwhelming advantage in manpower and weapon quantities. According to Ukrainian intelligence, some 30,000 North Koreans will soon join the fight. Konstantin Kosachev, vice speaker of Russia’s Federation Council, wrote on his Telegram that Trump’s announcement won’t affect Russia’s stance:
And in 50 days, oh how much can change – both on the battlefield and in the mood of those in power in the US and Nato.
When summer, the best season for the ground offensive, ends, Trump believes Putin will come to the negotiating table. He is even concerned that, with all the weapons received, Ukraine may feel ‘emboldened’ to continue the fight and refuse the peace deal. Rutte was right to dismiss his doubts. ‘Ukraine wants a peace deal and they will stay committed to that, there is no doubt’, he said. ‘You and I will make sure of it.’ Ukraine’s best chance is to use this time – and America’s weapons – to stabilise the front line and stop the Russian advances once and for all.
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