Turmoil ahead for Labour

The atmosphere in Westminster right now is incredibly febrile, no idea or speculation seems too outlandish to contemplate. But it does seem to me that a couple of things are being overlooked.

1). The Brownites won’t go quietly: All this talk about delegations, letters and rolling resignations often forgets that if the Brownites decide to stay and fight then this process will be very long and bloody. The reason that getting Blair to give a date for his departure in September 2006 was comparatively easy was that Blair did not want to get engaged in an unseemly struggle to stay in power. But it would be a major surprise if the Brownites walked away. After all, from the top down they have nothing else to go to.

2). A multi-candidate leadership race could be very messy and infuriate the public: There are two dangers to a multi-candidate race. First, it could turn nasty—leaving the party totally split. Second, the eventual victor could be diminished by pandering to the Labour selectorate and having to regularly debate people like John McDonnell who are clearly not going to be PM. Also, the third quarter might show negative growth in the British economy. The public would not take kindly to Labour squabbling while the economy burns.

3). Any new leader would find it very hard to control the PLP: As the recent history of the Conservative party shows, once regicide has entered a party’s bloodstream it is very difficult to get rid of. If Labour were to get rid of two Prime Ministers within two years then the new leader would find it very hard to assert his authority; especially as almost anyone who obtains the crown will be tainted by rebellion and so not have the moral authority to call on the party to show loyalty.