The unusually dry autumn means it makes sense to favour horses with a preference for good ground when it comes to the racing at Wincanton and Aintree tomorrow. Field sizes continue to be smaller than usual because many trainers do not want to risk injuring their charges on quick ground at the start of the season.
ALL THE GLORY is a likeable sort who will get her favoured conditions when she makes her seasonal debut in the BetMGM Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle at Wincanton (1.45 p.m.).
She was impressive when she destroyed a decent 17-runner field at Newbury in March and, although her three subsequent runs were moderate, she may by then have paid the price for her busy season. Tomorrow’s trip of just over 2 miles and 5 furlongs should be perfect for her.
All The Glory is trained by the father and son team of Jonjo and A.J. O’Neill and the latter said of their seven-year-old mare in a recent Racing Post stable tour that ‘she seems fresh and well again and we’re happy to go to war with her’. In an open 14-runner race, back her each way at 8-1 with either bet365 or William Hill, both paying four places.
The other race at Wincanton tomorrow that, despite the quick conditions, has attracted a fairly competitive field is the 63rd Badger Beer Handicap Chase (3.30 p.m.), which is run over a distance of 3 miles 1 furlong.
Trainer Anthony Honeyball fielded three of the 11 runners a year ago and won the race with Blackjack Magic. Another of his runners, FORWARD PLAN, was back in sixth that day beaten almost 25 lengths by his stable mate before he (Forward Plan) went on to win decent handicap chases at Doncaster and Kempton.
Honeyball again runs three of his horses tomorrow in an attempt to win the race for a second year running and, once again, Forward Plan is one of his trio. The worry for punters is that Forward Plan will again need the race on his seasonal debut.
However, this consistent gelding could be overpriced in this 10-runner field. Back him at 9-1 with either SkyBet or Betfred, both offering four places, rather than at a point higher with other bookmakers offering a place less.
The race that I am most looking forward to tomorrow is the BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree (2.40 p.m.), which is run over 2 miles 5 furlongs on the Grand National course. I have already put up two horses in this contest and I am pleased to see both are taking their chances tomorrow at much shorter odds than when I tipped them.
Percussion and Frero Banbou were second and third respectively in this race a year ago on heavy ground but neither should be inconvenienced by the much quicker surface tomorrow. In a 13-runner field, there are plenty of dangers perhaps headed by Olly Murphy’s improving gelding, Sure Touch, if he takes to these distinctive brush fences.
I am also going to put up a ante-post bet in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 23. Eighteen runners have been entered in this Grade 1 contest but, especially if ground conditions stay quick, I strongly suspect that less than half of those will actually run in two weeks’ time.
Dan Skelton’s Grey Dawning heads the market at a top priced 2-1 but those odds look skinny for a horse that would have to concede plenty of weight to several rivals if this were a handicap. I would much rather be on Lucinda Russell’s AHOY SENOR particularly as he is not ground dependent and he has this race as his early-season target.
I am aware that his jumping is sometimes less than perfect but he is a talented horse at his best and his trainer was making all the right noises about him in her Racing Post stable tour last month. His comeback run at Aintree last month was also full of promise so back Ahoy Senor each way at 6-1 three places with SkyBet, Paddy Power or Betfair.
Next week I will turn my attention, with an abundance of enthusiasm, to Cheltenham’s wonderful three-day November meeting.
Pending:
1 point each way All The Glory at 8-1 in the Mares’ Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Frero Banbou at 14-1 in the Grand Sefton, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Percussion at 12-1 in the Grand Sefton, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Forward Plan at 9-1 in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Go Dante at 9-1 in the Greatwood Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 6-1 in the Betfair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend – 2 points
2 points win Saint Segal at 4-1in the Byrne Group Handicap Chase. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Thunder Rock at 9-2 in the bet365 Hurdle. Non runner. Stake returned.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 6 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past nine years: I have made a profit in 16 of the past 18 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 558.4 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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