The first race of the season over the Grand National fences at Aintree takes place tomorrow when 17 runners are due to line up for the William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2.40 p.m.).
A good case can be made for the first three in the betting: King Turgeon, White Rhino and Johnnywho. The former won this race a year ago before showing further improvement later in the season, whereas the other two have clearly been targeted at this contest for some time and are potential improvers.
If one of them wins at around 5-1, then so be it but I would prefer to look for value elsewhere. At first glance, OUR POWER was not an immediate pick for this race having been running well at distances of up to four miles last season, whereas tomorrow’s contest is over only two miles five furlongs. Furthermore, this will be the first run of the season for the ten-year-old and older horses generally come on for their seasonal debut.
However, the gelding’s handler Sam Thomas is a superb target trainer and his string is in sparkling form, with all of his last four runners winning. I would be pretty sure Thomas will have this horse ready to run a big race and the drop in trip could be just what he needs to land a big pot, hopefully racing prominently out of trouble. Back him 1 point each way at 9-1 with bet365, Betfred, BetVictor or Coral, all paying five places. Slightly bigger odds are on offer elsewhere but with fewer places.
However, I am going to go into this race double handed with JET PLANE for the Skeltons, trainer Dan and jockey Harry. The nine-year-old gelding took well to the brush fences when second in the Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase in April. Tomorrow’s race looks to have been his big aim for the first half of the season. Back him 1 point each way at 14-1 with William Hill, paying five places.
Cheltenham’s November meeting is just a week off and so I am going to put up a horse ante-post in each of the big handicaps over the weekend.
The form of the DragonBet Welsh Champion Hurdle run at Chepstow on 12 October looks rock solid. Celtic Dino, the winner, is capable of winning a graded race this season and the second horse, Alexei, franked the form by winning cosily at Ascot last weekend.
However, both are now 7lbs higher in the official ratings than for their Chepstow runs and the best handicapped horse in the Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham on 16 November could be WILFUL for the O’Neill team, trainer Jonjo and his jockey son Jonjo Jnr.
Wilful was beaten less than four lengths by the winner at Chepstow and can meet him on 6lbs better terms. At just six, he should still be improving as he was not given a hard time when beaten on his seasonal debut.
There was also plenty to like about Wilful’s final run of last season when second in a 17-runner handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival in April. Back him 1 point each way at 10-1, four places, terms being offered by the likes of bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral and Unibet.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup run a week tomorrow, 15 November, is always a competitive affair. If he runs, then The Jukebox Man’s current price of 16-1 will look big on the day but I suspect he may not be risked on the likely quick ground by his handler Ben Pauling as the horse is coming back from injury. He will have bigger days to aim at later in the season when the rain arrives.
Instead, I expect The Jukebox Man’s stablemate BAD, available at the same price, will take his chance and, hopefully, outrun his odds. This grey gelding seems to have been around for ever yet he is only six. He was a decent enough handicap hurdler but he is proving to be a much better chaser, having won three of his last five races over the bigger obstacles.
My biggest concern is that Bad might be better going right-handed rather than left-handed at Cheltenham. However, back him 1 point each way at 16-1 four places, a price being offered by almost all bookmakers.
I will take a closer look at the cards for Cheltenham’s November meeting in a week’s time.
Pending:
1 point each way Our Power at 9-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Jet Plane at 14-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Bad at 16-1 for Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Wilful at 10-1 for Greatwood Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Romeo Coolio at 16-1 for the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Derryhassen Paddy at 25-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: + 0.5 points
1 point each way Indemnity at 17-2 for the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 2nd. +0.5 points.
2025-26 jumps season: running total – 7.5 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six full seasons of tipping: + 126 points
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