Two bets pre-Cheltenham

It may come as a surprise that, even though we are just four days away from a certain major racing Festival in the Cotswolds, today’s betting column will be a no go area when it comes to putting up tips for Cheltenham next week. There are three reasons, all hopefully logical, for this approach.

First, I (possibly even we if you follow my tips) already have eight horses in the ante-post portfolio from the past four months. Secondly, the value has gone in the current ante-post lists and, particularly for the big-race handicaps, it is now better to wait until after the 48-hour declarations when there will be more each-way places on offer from almost all bookies.

Thirdly, the powers-that-be at Spectator Life have once again invited me to do a daily tipping column throughout the week and the plan is to have this up and running each morning, sometime after 9 a.m., for all four days starting on Tuesday.

Hopefully, the betting coffers are in good order after last week’s 16-1 winner: Cracking Rhapsody in the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso. Yes, annoying about the Rule 4 deduction because of the defection of the favourite but there was still a healthy profit on the bet.

So, let’s start by looking at the big race at Sandown tomorrow – the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (2.25 p.m.). I tipped Ben Pauling’s gelding Bad last time out when he went down by just a head in a competitive handicap hurdle at Ascot, and he could well go one better tomorrow.

However, he has gone up 4 lbs in the official ratings for that run and I am pretty sure he is better over two and a half miles rather than two miles so the drop back in trip tomorrow is a minus rather than a plus in my book. At his current odds of around 6-1, I would rather look elsewhere for value. The same applies to Pauling’s other runner at the front of the market, Jipcot.

The Skeltons – trainer Dan and jockey Harry – love to plunder big handicap hurdles for fun and they must have a good chance of landing this £50,000-plus pot with FAIVOIR. Now nine years old, this gelding is only 2 lbs higher in the official ratings than when landing the McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and at odds of 33-1.

Faivoir should be in his element tomorrow in the hustle and bustle of a big field and so take the 11-1 each way, paying six places, with William Hill. Dan Skelton has two other entries in the race, Knickerbockerglory and Goonhilly. The former is not without a chance especially if the ground rides very soft. In truth, it’s a hugely open race with any number of horses having a shout at landing the spoils.

Metier has two Ps – pulled ups – by his name for his last two runs but he is capable of going close if returning to his best form. Don’t forget, he won the Chester Cup on the flat less than a year ago and he thrives on soft, ideally heavy, ground. He’s also well handicapped over hurdles compared with his flat rating.

Another horse that should be suited by a big field is DARTMOOR PIRATE in the European Breeders’ Fund Betfair ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final (Sandown 1.50 p.m.). He ran arguably his best race to date when easily winning an 18-runner maiden hurdle at Wincanton shortly before Christmas.

Since then, he has been runner-up twice in fairly modest novice hurdles but his handler believes there is more to come from this well-bred five-year-old gelding. With Ben Godfrey taking off a useful 3 lbs, back him each way at 16-1 with William Hill, paying five places.

With more than £45,000 on offer for the winning connections, this is another red-hot handicap and I couldn’t confidently rule out any of the 17 runners. Paul Nicholls trains the two top weights in the race, Fire Flyer and Emailandy, and Harry Cobden has almost certainly got it right in choosing to ride the former over the latter.

Anyway, it’s just the two tips for tomorrow with a feeling of wanting to keep the powder relatively dry for next week’s potentially bruising battle with the old enemy: the bookmakers.

Get ready to enjoy a modest flutter or two next week when the crowd’s so-called ‘Cheltenham roar’ marks not just the start of the first race of the Festival but, for me at least, it heralds the beginning of the greatest race meeting in the world.

Pending:

1 point each way Faivoir in the Imperial Cup at 11-1, 1/5^th odds, paying 6 places.

1 point each way Dartmoor Pirate at 16-1 in the ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Libberty Hunter at 12-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5th odds, five places.

1 point each way Doddiethegreat at 12-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, five places.

1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Bowtogreatness at 20-1 NRNB for the Kim Muir, 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Bravemansgame at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

Settled bets from last weekend:

1 point each way Benson at 12-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5^th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Cracking Rhapsody at 16-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5^th odds, 6 places. 1^st + 16 points (not 20 points after the Rule 4 deduction).

1 point each way Fortescue at 6-1 in the BetVictor Veterans’ Handicap Chase, paying 1/5^th odds, 3 places. 2^nd + 0.2 points.

1 point each way Bill Baxter at 17-2 in the Greatwood Gold Cup, paying 1/5^th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 14.01 points.

2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.

2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.

My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).