The classiest race this weekend is the Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury (tomorrow, 3.35 p.m.) in which the French-trained Big Rock and the Newmarket-trained Inspiral are understandably vying for favouritism.
They are officially the two top rated horses in the race and they both finished last season on a high: Big Rock won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day by a comfortable six lengths, while John and Thady Gosden’s Inspiral travelled to America and won the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf by a neck under a strong Frankie Dettori ride.
In fact, the two horses ran against each other last season when Inspiral went to Deauville in August and beat Big Rock by just over a length in the Group 1 Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard Jacques le Marois.
Which horse goes off favourite tomorrow could well be decided by the ground. Inspiral, a five-year-old mare, likes to hear her hooves rattle, while Big Rock, a four-year-old colt, is at his best on going with plenty of cut.
However, in an intriguing contest over a mile, I am going to take a chance on a horse that has been off the track with an injury for the best part of a year. Paul and Oliver Cole’s ROYAL SCOTSMAN was a fine third in the Qipco 2000 Guineas last May despite pulling too hard. He then blotted his copybook with two poor runs down the field in Grade 1 races at the Curragh and Royal Ascot. Those lacklustre displays were later put down to the fact that the horse was suffering from a rare condition of bone bruising to his legs, which explains his long absence from the track.
However, the Coles, father and son handlers, have always retained tremendous faith in their horse. Indeed, Oliver Cole issued an upbeat assessment on Royal Scotsman earlier this week, saying: ‘He’s all set for the Lockinge and is in good form.
‘We couldn’t be happier with him at this stage. He got bone bruising and now he’s fine, that was the reason we stopped [last year]. He never went forward in Ireland and he never went forward at Ascot and hopefully he will go forward on Saturday. He’s a very, very good horse, so fingers crossed.’
Back Royal Scotsman each way at 16-1 with Paddy Power or Betfair, both paying three places. Although the horse’s fitness has to be taken on trust, I like the fact that all ground conditions come alike to this four-year-old colt and he looks overpriced if returning to his best.
Of the horses that have raced this season, Roger Varian’s Charyn has the best form, with two wins from two runs at Doncaster and Sandown. He looks to be a better four-year-old than he was a three-year-old last season but tomorrow’s challenge is far tougher.
My second bet of the weekend also runs at Newbury, this time in the Trade Nation London Gold Cup (tomorrow, 3 p.m.). This is a one mile two furlong handicap worth more than £50,000 to the winner.
It’s a tricky contest with several of the 14 runners lightly raced and therefore open to bags of improvement. Trainer Ed Walker has his horses in fine form, with five winners from his last 26 runners over the last fortnight for a 19 per cent strike rate.
He runs INTO BATTLE who made all at Epsom last month, having won his second start of last year at Kempton on the all weather in November.
Tomorrow’s race will be only the fourth run of his career and he is stepping up in trip too. In his Racing Post Weekender column, Walker said this week that he was “excited” to be running Into Battle at Newbury.
The Lambourn handler added: ‘He looks well handicapped off a mark of 82 and has a real chance…He’s improved with each outing and put up a decent performance to win at Epsom last month, under a good ride by Saffie Osborne. The step up to 1m 2f here shouldn’t be an issue’.
There are plenty of dangers, including the Aidan O’Brien trained Chantilly, but Into Battle looks overpriced at 25-1, again with Paddy Power and Betfair, and is a tentative each way selection, with both bookmakers paying four places.
It was pleasing to see one of my favourite handicappers, Zoffee, win the Chester Cup at 9-1 a week ago under a fine Harry Davies ride, having been put up at 16-1 in this column seven days earlier. He’s only gone up 4 lbs in the official ratings for that win and, even though he is eight years old now, Zoffee can still make his presence felt in staying handicaps this summer off his new mark.
Pending:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 16-1 in the Lockinge Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Into Battle at 25-1 in the London Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
Last weekend’s settled bets: + 15 points
1 point each way Oviedo at 14-1 in the Huxley Stakes, ¼ odds paying 2 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Zoffee at 16-1 in the Chester Cup, ¼ odds paying 4 places. 1st. + 20 points.
1 point each way Solent Gateway at 12-1 in the Chester Cup, 1/5th odds paying 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Pearle D’Or at 10-1 in the Victoria Cup, 1/5th odds paying 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Hickory at 10-1 in the Victoria Cup, 1/5th odds paying 7 places. 4th. + 1 point.
2024 flat season running total + 11 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
- My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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