The heavy rain of the past 48 hours is good news for two horses that I fancy for the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle tomorrow (Newbury, 3.15 p.m.). The ground is now ‘heavy, soft in places’ and more rain forecast later today.
I put up BRENTFORD HOPE at 14-1 for the race four weeks ago and his best form on the Flat means that he is well weighted over hurdles, particularly now that he has his favoured cut in the ground. His trainer, Harry Derham, is in sparkling from with three winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight, for a 27 per cent strike rate.
I still like his price of 14-1, now seven places, and so I am, unusually, going to back him again with a further one point each way bet with William Hill at those odds. William Hill and SkyBet are the two bookies offering seven places, compared with others offering six or five places.
However, I want to go in double-handed with ALTOBELLI even though I was disappointed he was not a winning bet for this column when he was third in the Betfair Exchange Trophy Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas. He hung badly after the final hurdle just when he looked poised to win but I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt and put that down to his dislike of the quick ground.
This six-year-old gelding remains highly thought of by his handler Harry Fry and I would be surprised if he is not rated higher than his current mark of 132 given time. I was hoping for a double-figure price but those odds have gone and I am not going to desert him now. Back him each way at 8-1 with William Hill offering seven places.
It’s a wide open race and the all-conquering Willie Mullins yard could well land the spoils in this race for the first time with the favourite Ocastle Des Mottes. Iberico Lord could also easily win this if he returns to the form of his Greatwood Hurdle victory at Cheltenham in November, now that he has cut in the ground once again. Tellherthename is clearly a talented novice but all the signs are he would prefer a quicker terrain.
Of those at bigger prices L’Eau Du Sud should run a big race. I put him up for the Greatwood Hurdle but he disappointed that day when something was clearly amiss with the horse on his seasonal debut. Expect a far better run tomorrow with more cut in the ground.
Ito Ditto, from the small but shrewd Somerset yard of Nicky Martin, has been backed in recent days and his all-the-way victory at Chepstow last time out marked him out as a well-above-average racehorse. In reality, most of the 24 runners are in with some sort of shout as they chase a first prize worth more than £87,000 to the winner.
That’s it betting wise for this week with nothing else grabbing my eye for a wager on the rest of the Newbury card or at the other meetings tomorrow. The entries for the Randox Grand National were announced on Tuesday and I was pleased to see all three of my tips for the race on the list. The weights for the Aintree marathon will be announced on Tuesday 20 February.
Pending:
1 point each way Brentford Hope at 14-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Brentford Hope a 14-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, seven places.
1 point each way Altobelli at 8-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, seven places.
1 point each way Credo at 14-1 in the Grand National Trial, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Jetara at 14-1 NRNB for Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
Settled bets from last weekend:
1 point each way Certainly Red at 7-1 in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase, 1/5th odds, four places. 2nd but Rule 4 deduction. + 0.26 points.
1 point each way Jetara at 10-1 for the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 1 point.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 7.21 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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