As I say in The Sun this morning, one of the things about the Salisbury attack that has disconcerted the UK government is how–relatively obvious–the Russians have made it, that it was them. They clearly wanted to send a message.
In Whitehall, the thinking is that there were three things that Moscow was trying to achieve with the poisoning of Sergei Skripal. First, to show Russia’s enemies that they are never safe. If they can hit a former spy for Britain who was keeping a low profile in a small English City then they can get to anyone.
Second, they think that the Russians were trying to test Britain. This country is now the major Western power that is most consistently arguing for a robust approach to Vladimir Putin. This attack has enabled them to see how prepared for confrontation the UK is and where it stands diplomatically.
They also suspect that the attack was designed to create a reaction ahead of the Russian election on Sunday. Putin likes to play on the idea of Russia being under siege from the West. So, voters hearing about diplomats being expelled and fresh sanctions being introduced as they go to the polls suits his agenda.
Beyond how the government handles the coming tit for tat exchanges with Moscow, two big things need to change. First, the UK needs to start spending more on defence so that it is ready to respond to threats from non-state actors and states alike and in cyberspace and real life. Second, the UK needs an energy policy that means this country won’t end up reliant on Russian gas. That is going to require this country to finally get a move on with fracking.
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