Tomorrow’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Newmarket, 2.40 p.m.) is worth more than £100,000 to the winner and it is always a highly competitive affair. As usual, the substantial prize money has attracted several runners from the other side of the Irish Sea and it is not hard to see why one of them, Pied Piper, is the favourite.
Gordon Elliott’s five-year-old gelding is a high-class hurdler and is extremely well weighted on the flat compared with his jumps’ rating. Furthermore, the canny Irish handler has acquired the services of Ryan Moore in the saddle, even though the jockey would normally be riding one of the fancied horses trained by Willie Mullins.
I am happy to take a chance on his stamina and back him each way at 50-1
However, Pied Piper, who can sometimes pull hard, is not guaranteed to stay this two miles two furlongs trip in a fast-run flat race on ground that could become very deep over the next 24 hours. That makes the current top price of 9-2 look unattractive in a race of 34 runners.
Several of the big British trainers also love to target this big prize every year, of course. I had expected to put up Alan King’s Tritonic as I am sure that the trainer has been targeting this Newmarket race ever since his horse finished third at Royal Ascot in June in the Ascot Stakes. However, the ground at Newmarket is now ‘soft’ with more rain to come and Tritonic ran poorly at Goodwood in August after the ground became very slow. So, on balance, I will give him a swerve tomorrow.
Trainer Hughie Morrison will go into the race double-handed. I was also tempted to put up Vino Victrix, who was second in this race a year ago and can run off an official mark of 2lbs less this time around. That’s because he has performed below par so far this season, although his last run at Goodwood strongly suggested that he is about to return to his best. However, Vino Victrix is another horse who probably does not want the ground to be bottomless.
Morrison’s second runner, NOT SO SLEEPY, is, at the age of 11, rapidly becoming something of a legend: I have certainly been a member of his unofficial fan club for some time after his courageous exploits over hurdles and on the flat.
Despite being quirky, Not So Sleepy has run three big races in the Cesarewitch over the past four years, being fourth twice and third once. He is not particularly well weighted tomorrow but he will absolutely love the soft ground and so I am going to put him up one point each way at 18-1 with Sky Bet paying eight places. The more it rains between now and the off, the better it will be for this wonderful old veteran.
My second tip is, admittedly, left field. Jim Goldie is a Scottish trainer who doesn’t mind running each of his horses over a huge variety of distances. Indeed, GEREMIA’s last run was in the bet365 Cambridgeshire over a trip of just one mile one furlong.
Tomorrow, Geremia will run over a distance twice as far and he is not guaranteed to stay, especially if the ground becomes even more testing. However, his Cambridgeshire run was pretty good, being beaten less than four lengths by the winner Astro King. He will certainly benefit from going up in trip but, in truth, his best distance may prove to be two miles or even a couple of furlongs less.
However, with a 7lbs claimer in the saddle, I am happy to take a chance on his stamina and back him each way at 50-1 with Paddy Power or Betfair, both paying seven places. This race sometimes turns up a surprise result, after all.
At York tomorrow, the big handicap is the Coral Sprint Trophy (2.25 p.m.). If this six-furlong contest was run every Saturday, there would always be a different result and it is an easy race to leave alone with a field of 22 runners certain to be spread across the course.
However, I can’t resist backing ALEEZDANCER now that the rain has arrived. Yes, I put him up in the Ayr Gold Cup and he ran poorly but that was because the ground was only ‘good to soft’ and he ideally wants the terrain akin to an Irish bog. Tomorrow it should be much softer that it was at Ayr and, the more of the wet stuff that falls, the better his chances.
I have no doubt that Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old gelding is capable of winning a big sprint handicap when he gets his favoured ground. Stall 1 might well be an advantage and he has a 7lbs claimer in the saddle too. Back him 2 points win at 16-1 with Paddy Power or Betfair.
Happy punting, as always.
2023 flat season running total: – 43.62 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending:
1 point each way Not So Sleepy at 18-1 in the Cesarewitch, paying eight places.
1 point each way Geremia at 50-1 in the Cesarewitch, paying seven places.
2 points win Aleezdancer at 16-1 in the Coral Portland Trophy.
Settled bets from last week:
2 points win Dark Trooper at 7-1 in the John Geest Racing Bengough Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Popmaster at 14-1 for the Howden Challenge Cup. 2nd. – 2 points.
1 point each way Bless Him at 20-1 for the Howden Challenge Cup, paying five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a one point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either one point each way or two points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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