Not for the first time on Champions Day at Ascot, the ground tomorrow looks likely to be very soft and it is essential to back horses that can handle the conditions. All the better, too, if they have strong course form as the sand-based track is not liked by all horses – even those that can handle ease in the ground.
In the Balmoral Handicap (4.25 p.m.) the likes of Docklands, Sonny Liston, Migration and Baradar are at the head of the market and, of the four, the last named makes most appeal. He has winning course form and he will relish the recent rain. Yes, he has been raised by the handicapper for his two recent wins but that doesn’t necessarily mean his winning streak will end.
I am pretty confident that Awaal will run a better race tomorrow now that he has his preferred terrain
Docklands was hugely impressive at Royal Ascot in June when landing the 29-runner Britannia Stakes over tomorrow’s race distance of one mile. However, that was on good to firm ground and he is now a fully 10 lbs higher in the official ratings.
I have twice put Sonny Liston up in this column for big handicaps and he has fallen short despite continuing to improve and showing that he could be a group horse next season. However, he is another horse creeping up the ratings and he would probably not want ground conditions to deteriorate further.
Migration won the Pertemps Network Lincoln on heavy ground at Doncaster back in April and, if returning to form after a poor run at Newmarket followed by a mid-season break, he could certainly make the frame.
On balance, I am, as usual, going to reject backing the market leaders and I am going in search of bigger odds, this time with AWAAL, trained by the father and son team of Simon and Ed Crisford. The pair have enjoyed a hugely successful season with 58 winners at a strike rate of 18 per cent.
Awaal, a four-year-old gelding, showed his liking for cut in the ground when second to Migration in the Lincoln at the start of the season. Then, in June, he showed his liking for Ascot when third to Jimi Hendrix in the Royal Hunt Cup on ground faster than ideal.
Awaal was given a mid-season break before finishing third to Vafortino at Redcar earlier this month. He was favourite that day but a small-field listed race over seven furlongs on good ground is not really his ‘bag’ and I am pretty confident that he will run a better race tomorrow now that he has his preferred terrain once again.
James Doyle returns to the saddle on Awaal and he has a good record on the horse, with two wins and a second from his three rides on the gelding .Back Awaal one point each way at 12-1 with Sky Bet, paying six places, in the hope that high numbers in the draw are favoured on the straight course tomorrow.
Another trainer to have enjoyed a really excellent season is Ralph Beckett and I am hoping he can get a winner on Champions Day with BLUESTOCKING in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Ascot, 2.25 p.m.).
This talented three-year-old filly has yet to win this season in five starts. However, she is clearly improving and her best run was when second to Savethelastdace in the Group 1 Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh on soft ground in July. With the horse being beaten only half a length that day, I am hoping she can go one better tomorrow. Back her one point each way at 9-1 with Sky Bet, paying five places.
Elsewhere on Champions Day, there is plenty to enjoy on a card packed with talented horses and the country’s best jockeys. Kinross, favourite for the Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Ascot, 1.50 p.m.) over six furlongs, and Trueshan, second favourite for the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Ascot, 1.15 p.m.) over two miles, are two other horses which have good course form at Ascot with cut in the ground. However, they are both at cramped odds and so not backing them is easy enough for me. These are two of the many races simply to watch and savour.
2023 flat season running total: – 45.02 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending:
1 point each way Bluestocking at 9-1 in the Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
1 point each way Awaal at 12-1 in the Balmoral Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, six places.
Settled bets from last week:
1 point each way Not So Sleepy at 18-1 in the Cesarewitch, paying 1/5th odds, eight places. 7th. + 2.6 points.
1 point each way Geremia at 50-1 in the Cesarewitch, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Aleezdancer at 16-1 in the Coral Portland Trophy. Unplaced. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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