The jumps season is well under way and I am delighted to be tipping chasers and hurdlers again for the first time in six months. I particularly enjoy backing course specialists over the Grand National fences at Aintree and so the Boylesport Grand Sefton Handicap Chase is just up my street.
In last year’s contest only 14 horses lined up for the race which was won by Al Dancer. Sam Thomas’s gelding is, according to his handler, unlikely to defend his crown but the two horses closest to him that day, Gesskille and Percussion, are likely to take part in the race.
Geskille is favourite in most books for this two miles and five furlongs contest and he will have every chance if running to his best form last season. He ran well in both the Grand Sefton and the Boylesport Becher Chase, also over the National fences but over a five furlongs longer trip. However, odds of only 6-1 or less are pretty skinny for a race as competitive as the one run a week tomorrow (November 11).
I would rather be on PERCUSSION each way at 20-1 especially as this race could easily cut up again to around 14 runners or even less. This tough eight-year-old gelding is trained by Laura Morgan, who is one of the best up-and-coming trainers in the country.
Morgan started making a real name for herself last season, including when her horse, Notlongtillmay, finished second in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival at odds of 40-1.
Percussion runs well fresh as he was making his seasonal debut in the Grand Sefton last year. That time he had to run from 8lbs out of the handicap off a rating of 133 whereas this year he can run from in the handicap off a rating of 128.
If Adam Wedge is available to take the ride, all the better because he gets on so well with the horse. Take the 20-1 each way, four places, with Paddy Power, Betfair and Sky Bet.
However, I am even sweeter on the chances of another horse that jumps these National fences with real skill and that is Nicky Henderson’s mare FANTASTIC LADY. The appropriately-named eight-year-old certainly took well to the fences when a gallant second toBill Baxter in the 29-runner Randox-sponsored Topham Handicap Chase in April. She is up 4 lbs in the ratings to a mark of 145 for that big run but she can handle the rise.
According to her trainer, the Grand Sefton is her early season target even though Henderson may just be double-handed in the race with the consistent six-year-old gelding City Chief also entered. However, as a strong stayer, City Chief could wait for the Coral Gold Cup (the ‘Hennessy’ in old money) at Newbury at the beginning of December.
Back Fantastic Lady each way at 10-1 with William Hill, paying four places, because I doubt that she will be that price on the day, especially if she is Henderson’s only runner in the race. Like Percussion, she does not seem to be ground dependent with decent form on everything from ‘good’ to ‘heavy’.
Anyway, an apology to my loyal followers for a torrid time on the tipping front this Flat season. As one reader, ‘Davids’, less than kindly, but quite accurately, pointed out last week in the Comments section, the results ‘almost cancel out his [Penworthy’s] good return on the jumps!’
I hold my hands up and admit to some poor tips which have resulted in my worst season of betting since I started keeping the results – to the penny – on all my bets seven years ago.
However, by any standards, I have also had a cruel run of seconds at big prices with several tips being beaten in photo finishes, often by big outsiders. If just two or three of these tips had won, it would have been a respectable enough season, even a profitable one, but, hey-ho, those near misses are racing/betting for you in nutshell.
Point Lynas (put up at 25-1 and went off 9-1) was beaten a head by a 40-1 shot in the Clipper Handicap, which was a tough result to take. Similarly, The Gatekeeper (put up at 18-1 and went off at 14-1) was only beaten by a 25-1 in the Coral Golden Mile and Apollo One (put up at 16-1 and went off at 11-1) was only beaten by a 22-1 shot in the Wokingham.
The other seconds at decent prices included the likes of Popmaster (put up at 14-1), Westover (put up at 9-1), Bluestocking (put up at 9-1), Ouzo (put up at 15/2), and, most recently, Glorious Angel (put up at 7-1). Popmaster was actually called the winner by the commentator at Ascot last month, only to lose it on the nod in a closest of photo finishes. With lots of the above bets being put up as win only, the pain from the run of near-misses was even more acute.
Furthermore, on several ante-post bets the going turned against my tips time and again at the last moment. When an ante-post wager did finally get its favoured ground, notably Oviedo in the bet365 Cambridgeshire (put up at 16-1) the horse got an impossible draw (ie stall 1) and yet still went close in fourth beaten by horses drawn 35, 25 and 28. Anyway, at the end of the day, or the end of the season in this case, it was a poor one betting wise, no ifs or buts, and I repeat my apologies for my losing run.
On the positive side, I am still narrowly ahead of the bookies after nearly a year of tips for Spectator Life and I am still more than 475 points on my accredited tips over the past 16 seasons. So, it’s very much a case of onwards and, hopefully, upwards, from now on with plenty to relish over the jumps between now and the end of April.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Fantastic Lady at 10-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Percussion at 20-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Settled bets from last week:
2 points win White Birch at 11-2in the St Simon Stakes. Meeting abandoned. Bet void.
2 points win Glorious Angel at 7-1 in the William Hill Farewell Flat Handicap. 2nd. – 2 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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