Unless I am being kept in the dark, Spectator Life has no intention of following the lead of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme in scrapping their regular racing tips. That said, those sacked are usually the last to know – even when they are paid to predict the future. Kelvin MacKenzie, the legendary former editor of the Sun newspaper, once dismissed his astrologer with the words, ‘As you will no doubt have foreseen… you’re fired.’
Without getting overconfident on the safety of my position, I will continue as normal until told otherwise. Newcastle’s JenningsBet Northumberland Plate card tomorrow is the one and only time each year that I bet on the all-weather surface and that’s because this is a really classy card with some competitive racing.
I am backing ZOFFEE in the Plate (3.10 p.m.)and that’s not just because he did this column a big favour when winning the Chester Cup last month having been put up at 16-1. He is up only 4lbs for that win to an official rating of 94 and that is a mark only 1lb higher than when he was second in the Chester Cup 13 months ago.
Zoffee was only 15th in the Plate last year but that race almost certainly came too soon after his exertions at Royal Ascot just 11 days earlier – he is better with decent gaps between his races. We know Zoffee acts over the course and distance at Newcastle because he won the JenningsBet Northumberland Vase, the Plate’s consolation race, in 2022.
His trainer, Hugo Palmer, is convinced that Zoffee, even at the age of eight, is a better horse now than he was last season and so back him each way at 9-1 with William Hill, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying six places. However, I am going to go ingo the race double-handed, because SOLENT GATEWAY, Zoffee’s stablemate, is simply too big a price for this contest.
This six-year-old gelding looks to be a handy handicap mark, officially rated 90. He bombed in this year’s Chester Cup but he was third in the Plate two years ago and he ran well last time out, when second to the handicap-snip Divine Comedy at Haydock.
Solent Gateway had the likes of Emiyn and Euchen Glen, both decent staying handicappers, well beaten that day in third and fourth. Back him each way at 25-1 with Paddy Power or Betfair, both paying six places.
Michael Bell has been training at his Newmarket yard, Fitzroy House, for 35 years and has enjoyed plenty of big-race wins during that time, including winning the Derby with Motivator and the Oaks with Sariska. However, he is also pretty canny when it comes to targeting a handicap with a big pot.
I had been planning to put up his runner, Duke of Oxford, in the Plate but that was before he got backed into single figure odds and before he got another car-park draw in stall 20. I say ‘another’ one because he was in stall 16 in the recent Chester Cup and that, coupled with the fast ground, scuppered his chances last month.
Michael Bell was one of many trainers to have a bad luck story with one of his string at Royal Ascot last week. His runner in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, CARRYTHEONE, was all dressed up with nowhere to go for most of the final two furlongs of the race. However, even after being hampered, he went from last to third in no time at all. At worst, he would have been second with a clear run and it is not impossible that he would have won, although the connections of the easy winner, English Oak, might well have something to say about that suggestion.
Carrytheone can gain compensation for that unlucky run by winning the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket on 13 July, one of three entries this seven-year-old gelding holds in big-race handicaps this summer. This race, however, is his next target as things stand and he has winning form at Newmarket over 7 furlongs so back him each way at 10-1 with, paying four places.
With his hold-up style, he will always need luck in running but I am surprised he is still a double-figure price after his excellent Royal Ascot run. He has remained on an official mark of 101 too, since he was beaten by four lengths by English Oak.
There is plenty of good racing in Ireland too this weekend, including the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at the Curragh on Sunday, but I don’t have any strong fancies on the other side of the Irish Sea.
After a shaky start to Royal Ascot on the first two days, I am pleased to say this column showed a profit on the week, thanks to two decent priced winners, Isle of Jura and Mickley. However, the main winner from last week was racing itself, thanks to a superbly-organised meeting and endless hugely-competitive races. I hope the powers-that-be at Cheltenham racecourse were there taking notes.
Pending:
1 point each way Zoffee at 9-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/5th odds, six places.
1 point each way Solent Gateway at 25-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/5th odds, six places.
1 point each way Carrytheone at 10-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: (Friday/Saturday) + 9.6 points
1 point each way Jasour at 11-1 in the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 3rd. + 1.2 points.
1 point each way Mukaafah at 11-1 in the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Isle of Jura at 12-1 in the Hardwicke Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 1st. + 14.4 points.
1 point each way Shartash at 10-1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rumstar at 16-1 in the Wokingham Stakes paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Apollo One at 16-1 in the Wokingham Stakes paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Non runner. Stake returned.
2024 flat season running total + 14.7 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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