There’s disappointment in Downing Street this evening after nurses at the Royal College of Nursing voted to reject the government’s offer of a 5 per cent pay rise for 2023-24, along with a one-off lump sum payment. It was a close result, with 54 per cent rejecting the offer and 46 per cent voting to accept it. Following the result, the union promised fresh strikes as they attempt to put pressure on the government to come up with a more generous offer. The first of these is a 48-hour walkout over the May Bank Holiday weekend. In response, a government spokesperson branded the move ‘hugely disappointing’ and blasted the escalation of ‘strike action with no derogations, based on a vote from the minority of the nursing workforce’.
However, in better news for the government, members of Unison, which is the biggest union for overall health workers, voted to accept the offer – with three quarters voting to accept it. Speaking on Radio 4 this evening, Unison’s Sara Gorton said:
What’s really clear is that three quarters of unison members, you know, over 112,000 people have voted to tell me that they want to accept the pay offer that was on the table as an alternative to taking more strike action.
Both unions had recommended its members accept the offer. So, what happens now? There are still two unions holding ballots so the level of resistance to the current offer will become clearer in a few weeks’ time. In theory, the pay deal could pass without every union backing it but that could still mean industrial action from the unions against it.
For Sunak, today’s results are difficult. First, hopes for an agreement on pay have played into the idea that the Prime Minister is adept at solving tricky problems. A failure to end the strikes suggests the opposite. There is plenty more industrial action coming up the track including civil servants and teachers.
What’s more even if public opinion turns against the striking workers, the effect of ongoing strikes in the NHS will be painful both for patients and the Prime Minister’s political fortunes. One of Sunak’s five priorities is to reduce NHS waiting lists. As NHS confederation boss Matthew Taylor put it this morning, ongoing strikes will make hitting that target ‘very very difficult, perhaps almost impossible’.
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