After four hours of talks in Saudi Arabia, Russian and American negotiators have reportedly come up with a three-stage plan to end the war in Ukraine. According to Fox News, the plan includes a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine and the signing of a final agreement. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, who was neither informed nor invited to the talks, said that Russia and the US are discussing the same old ultimatum Moscow set at the start of full-scale war. ‘I wonder – if we didn’t accept such ultimatums in our most difficult moment, why does anyone think we would now?’, he said.
Back in February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin said he invaded Ukraine to protect people from the ‘Nazi regime in Kiev’. Since Russia couldn’t seize Kyiv or force the Ukrainian president to flee, the Kremlin’s only chance to declare victory – and potentially extract more concessions from a new Ukrainian leader – is to use a temporary ceasefire to oust Zelensky. For weeks now, Putin, in power since 1999, has been accusing Zelensky of being an ‘illegitimate’ president for overstaying his official term. Zelensky, Russia says, has no legal authority to sign any peace agreements as his presidency expired last May.
Donald Trump is buying into it. When asked last week whether he supports possible territorial concessions from Kyiv, Trump said Zelensky will have to do ‘what needs to be done’, and that Ukrainians must have elections soon. ‘His [Zelensky’s] ratings are ‘not particularly good, to put it mildly’, Trump said. His Ukraine peace envoy, Keith Kellogg, earlier suggested that Ukraine should aim for presidential and parliamentary elections by the end of the year, calling it a sign of a healthy democracy.
But it’s not Trump’s or Putin’s call to make. In 2023, all Ukrainian deputies, including the opposition, signed a declaration agreeing to start the elections six months after the war ends. To hold elections now, Ukraine would have to lift martial law. Borders would reopen, allowing men to flee, leaving Ukraine more vulnerable to a Russian attack if a ceasefire falls apart. Russian troops will still be there: resting, rearming and pouring concrete to fortify their trenches. The Kremlin would spend millions to push through a pro-Russian candidate – or at least someone less stubborn than Zelensky. Political rivals would arise from the ashes, turning on each other in a blame game, fracturing Ukraine’s fragile unity before real negotiations with Russia begin.
Both the US and Russia view elections in Ukraine as a key condition for a settlement largely based on the belief that Zelensky would lose. But what if he doesn’t? His approval has dropped from nearly 90 per cent to around 50 per cent in three years, yet it remains higher than any Ukrainian president before him. If he were to lose, it would likely be to Valery Zaluzhny, his former army chief, who hasn’t even declared the intention to run. And if Zaluzhny runs, he’ll be even more hawkish on Russia. That wouldn’t bring Trump’s Nobel peace prize any closer.
After meeting with the Russian delegation, Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, said he was ‘convinced’ that Russia is serious about ending the war. He is being naive. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister who also attended the talks, told reporters that the US had asked Russia in Riyadh for a moratorium on strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The request was rejected. Russia, Lavrov claimed, has never targeted Ukraine’s energy grid. The 70 per cent of it that lies in ruins might disagree.
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