US election 2016: New Hampshire primary – as it happened

New Hampshire

The Spectator’s deputy editor Freddy Gray is currently in New Hampshire. Here’s his report from the evening as the results of the primary came in.

3.13am Things slowing down now, folks. Thanks for reading. Story of the night is Bernie Sanders, just, and the Donald’s mind-blowing win a close second. A goofy 74 year old socialist just destroyed Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, and is tearing the Democratic party apart. And a 69-year-old billionaire is eviscerating the Republican party. Trump looks invincible, but the Cruz campaign is not to be underrated. Hillary has had a bad night, but she may have just about saved her candidacy with a stronger than usual speech. Expect the comeback narrative to start now.

3.07am Trump talking about ‘building an incredible wall’ again. ‘You’re going to very very happy,’ is one of his most used lines. His use of superlatives is mind-numbing. But it works.

3.04am Bush speech goes hard after Trump. ‘We need someone with a servant’s heart … not somebody who thinks it’s all about himself.’ Trump, meanwhile, pay tribute to his parents for making him so great.

2.38am Bernie Sanders bit tired and repetitive. Can a 74-year-old really be expected to run for this long? The Clinton speech was more eloquent and energetic.  She’s no spring chicken, 68.

2.31am Lindsey Graham out spinning for Bush. ‘This is great for South Carolina,’ he tells me. ‘He’s got a pep in step.’ He doesn’t look like he believes it. But the gap is less than 1,500. If Bush can’t get fourth he MUST be finished.

2.13am Hillary concession comes up on live screen here. The person manning the projector cuts her off. The crowd roars and waves their flags. The Bush versus Clinton fight is the shadow battle of this year’s nomination process. Both sides are rich, determined, and losing at moment. Hillary still has good chance of winning, Bush much less so. But in his refusal to stop fighting, he has helped destroy the other establishment options. Has Jeb Bush finally killed the Bush-era GOP? Can’t see how his brother joining the campaign trail will help. 

2.10am Speeches coming up …

02.08am Kasich pulling clear in second, and Cruz pipping Bush into third. Can’t help thinking third is a big result for Cruz. This should be one of weakest states.

02.00am The class division in New Hampshire is frighteningly stark. The Bush event feels positively country club. People in chinos name-dropping to show how well they know the governor. And they look nervous. At the packed-out Trump and Sanders events, people are, not to put too fine a point on it, clearly lower down the socio-economic scale, and angry. The Trump and Sanders people are winning. Bernie Sanders talks about ‘revolution’. It’s not hyperbolic to say that New Hampshire tonight feels a bit revolutionary.

01.50am With Jeb doing better than expected, South Carolina takes on an interesting complexion. Will it become the old Bush-era GOP’s last stand? Or will the Trump triumph make it a battle between the Donald and the counter-establishment, Tea Party-ish campaign of Ted Cruz? Bush has to win second place, or it looks like the latter.

01.42am Excitement building at the until now ‘low-energy’ Jeb! event. He’s now in second place. Spending millions and millions does work. Sort of.

01.38am What does Hillary do now? In 2008, her campaign lost the plot after winning in New Hampshire. Now, they have lost New Hampshire. Trying to attack Bernie as insufficiently feminist — as Bill Clinton tried to this week —

01.30am Cheers as Jeb! campaign looks at Bush’s third place. Maybe not such a bad night for the donor class, after all. The Bushes never quit and they’ll try to spin this as a win. Kasich is second but not a strong enough performance to give his campaign enough momentum ahead of Super Tuesday.

01.25am Ted Cruz is already in Charleston, SC. His strategy is still in good shape. We are looking at Trump versus Cruz, and Jeb as dark establishment horse. Or will the Republican GOP swallow their pride and lump for Trump. 

1.19am Christie campaign is surely over. He spent 72 days in New Hampshire. He and Rubio effectively drowned each other.

1.09am Jeb! at last emerges as establishment frontrunner? Looking at 3rd place. Bye Bye Rubio. Savage attacks from Rubio and Christie did him in.

01.03am Previous candidates who lost Iowa and won New Hampshire. Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, and Mitt Romney in 2012.

01.00am Polls in. Trump and Sanders. No surprise, but still staggering.

00.52am After Iowa, I think everybody forgot what a flawed candidate Rubio was. After the debate on Saturday night, they remembered.

00.52am If Iowa showed advantages of a good ground game and traditional spending, maybe New Hampshire shows ‘free media’ works better in primaries now. Trump is the king of free media.

00.47am Overheard at Jeb Bush HQ: ‘Trump’s got this.’

00.44am Trump huge early lead, with two per cent in. Forty per cent per cent. Cruz, Kasich tied on 11. Kasich needs second place and some momentum given his small 2.5 million campaign fun. Otherwise finished, surely. Sanders is killing Hillary. But Hillary expected to do well as less liberal precincts declare.

00.33am My prediction? Ben Carson will have a TV show within five months.

00.22am At George Bush HQ. Mood is glum. That said, there is a generous food spread. Jeb! the campaign is still loaded.

00.20am Looks like a bad night for Hillary Clinton. At voter booths today, the shouting and buzz was about Bernie Sanders. Clinton voters are probably more shy. Still, if she has done as badly as first indications, suggest it will be a big test for their spinners. And perhaps Joe Biden will make an important call. 

00.12am First reports suggest that Cruz has done surprisingly well, and may have taken second place. Maybe that ground game and voter-data investment paid off again. It’s also possible that Cruz benefits from what I call the ‘shy Tea Party phenomenon.’ His fans are just as anti-establishment as Trump, but quieter. All rumour and speculation so far.

00.07am DDHQ bellwether results in: Clinton 36.52% Sanders 61.98%

11.50pm First whispers from exit polls suggest that Trump and Sanders have stormed it. The interesting race, as expected, will be who finishes second to fifth in the Republican race. Talk here is that Rubio is tanking, Cruz is performing well. But then I haven’t been talking to the Rubio camp.

11.45pm I’ve just had a curious conversation with a Trump fan. She was holding a sign and shouting: ‘Donald Trump will make our military the most powerful in the world.’ Isn’t the US military already the most powerful in the world?’ I asked her. ‘No I don’t think so.’ I’m pretty sure it is, I said, trying not to sound like a conceited limey. ‘That’s your opinion.’ Not really, I insisted, it’s true. ‘Well that’s the great thing about America. You can have your opinion and I can have mine.’

11.40pm I’ve spent the past few days meeting voters from all sides:

Town councillor in largest polling station in NH- Londonderry – says turnout down on 2008 12k then. About 10k today pic.twitter.com/95OtozfHNE

— Freddy Gray (@Freddygray31) February 9, 2016

Trump crowd not exactly heaving pic.twitter.com/Kbk1MGEDhN

— Freddy Gray (@Freddygray31) February 8, 2016

Donald Trump hasn't shown up so this guy is taking over pic.twitter.com/PXwVT7r8Ta

— Freddy Gray (@Freddygray31) February 9, 2016

Just asked Bernie Sanders's wife if she liked Jeremy Corybn. Who? she said. J. C. I said. 'Oh yes. He's a good man. An intelligent man.'

— Freddy Gray (@Freddygray31) February 8, 2016

Rubio can expect a lot more of this … pic.twitter.com/lekeZLwGgF

— Freddy Gray (@Freddygray31) February 7, 2016