A taste of what to expect over the next six months came in today’s press conference with Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance. Following reports of plans in government for new national restrictions and a potential lockdown, the pair used their public address to provide an update of the latest coronavirus statistics. It did not make for pretty viewing.
Vallance said that if the rate of infection continues on its current trajectory without further restrictions the UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October. This he argued ‘would be expected to lead to about 200 deaths per day’ a month after that.
Whitty didn’t have much in the way of more positive news. While there has previously been a localised approach, he said that the country has now reached the point by which ‘we’re seeing is a rate of increase across the great majority of the country’. He warned that this is ‘not someone else’s problem, this is all of our problem’. Rather than talk about short-term pain, he suggested there would be six months of tightened measures before things hopefully improved significantly.
Neither Vallance and Whitty took any questions today, though there is an expectation there will be a politician-led press conference before the week is out with a Q&A. The briefing today is a precursor to an expected change in the rules this week. While the specifics of the rule change are still being decided in 10 Downing Street, it’s clear from today’s conference indicate the direction they are going in. Whitty and Vallance were laying the groundwork – and attempting to provide a justification – for new restrictions on daily life. The lack of Q&A today meant there was little scrutiny or kickback on their comments. Expect that to change as the week goes on. There are senior Conservative MPs – and some ministers – with deep reservations about the new direction of travel.
Now listen to today’s Coffee House Shots podcast with Cindy Yu, Katy Balls and James Forsyth on the government’s scientific advice:
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