How much of a threat is Ukip to Labour? The tanks of the people’s army have been on the Conservatives’ lawn for some time but we now have an idea why Labour has been preparing to fight the kippers on the doorstep. Lord Ashcroft has carried out his final round of marginal seats polling this year, focusing on eight seats where the Conservative majority is between 7.1 and 8.1 per cent — plus another four seats where Ukip are threatening Labour.
The results aren’t too bad for the Conservatives: out of the seven seats polled on Labour’s target list, they are ahead in just two of them (Ealing Central & Acton and Stevenage). According to Ashcroft’s polls, the Tories are ahead in the next election in Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, Elmet & Rothwell, Harrow East, Pendle, and Warwick & Leamington while South Swindon is currently a tie:
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The battle between Labour and Ukip is looking set to heat up. In the four constituencies judged most at risk from Ukip by the Fabian Society — Great Grimsby, Rother Valley, Dudley North and Plymouth Moor — Labour remains ahead, but only just:
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All told, there isn’t much good news for Labour. The Conservative vote appears to be holding up pretty well in these marginals — although not strongly enough to suggest a Tory majority is on the cards. Combined with the rise in the Ukip threat, a Labour majority in May isn’t in sight right now for Ed Miliband.
The other thing of note in the Ashcroft polling is that Labour appear to be the party benefiting from the impending drop in the Liberal Democrat vote. In the Lib Dem marginals he has polled so far, the Tories are ahead in ten and Labour in nine — but the Ukip factor comes into play in some of these, leaving the Tories battling on two fronts. If the Ukip vote remains strong in seats like Thurrock, Labour will benefit from the Lib Dems.
Although there are some interesting trends here, Ashcroft’s polling adds to the notion that a national swing towards one party is looking increasingly unlikely to tell the story of the 2015 election. As British politics becomes more fragmented, the only way to figure out what is happening is to drill down into the marginal seats.
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