We can’t rely on migration to fix the economy

The very wicked French novelist Michel Houellebecq recently asked: “It should be strange for the British: they voted for Brexit to have no more immigrants and you have more?” Yes Michel, it is strange – and not just for Britain. Migration to the western world has reached record levels, despite popular blowback in nearly every country.

Even excluding refugees (from Ukraine and elsewhere), permanent migration to the OECD hit a new high in 2023. Over a third of OECD countries registered their highest levels ever, particularly the United Kingdom, but also Canada and France.

The unlikely key to this story isn’t politicians but economists. There was a very real fear among economic policymakers in several countries of a brutal post-covid slowdown in an election year – one that never materialised, in part because of the economic statecraft that was deployed. In places like the United States, the migration lever was actively pulled to avert recession.