If City of Troy is as brilliant as his trainer Aidan O’Brien thinks he is and he runs to his best form, then he will win the first Classic of the flat season at Newmarket tomorrow. The three-year-old colt is not just a ‘talking horse’: his record on the racetrack last season was sensationally good, namely when destroying a decent field in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes in October.
Similarly, if Rosallion is as talented as his trainer Richard Hannon thinks and runs to his best, then he should finish second to City of Troy in the Qipco 2000 Guineas (Newmarket 3.35 p.m.). He won three of his four races last season, he has apparently wintered well and he should have his preferred good going tomorrow, although – with some heavy showers forecast for today – that’s not absolutely guaranteed.
However, it will not surprise regular readers of this column that I am still keen to take on both horses with a couple at bigger prices – but, in all honesty, more in hope than expectation. Odds of 8-11 on City of Troy and 11-2 on Rosallion make little appeal and I would rather back two colts at much bigger prices that are unbeaten and have real potential.
The difficulty is that in an 11-runner field, and with all bookies offering three places, that leaves just one place to fill if the front pair in the betting are two of the first three home tomorrow.
NIGHT RAIDER will have to step up considerably on his two runs when winning moderate seven-furlong races at Southwell on the all-weather. Those victories, one at the end of last year and one in March, were a long way from the form needed to win any Grade 1 race, let alone the 2000 Guineas.
However, Night Raider could not have been more impressive in either run and his trainer, Karl Burke, has long thought this horse was worthy of a Classic entry. Burke, too, is not a trainer prone to hyperbole and yet he said earlier this week of Night Raider: ‘He’s a lot of potential and a lot of ability and I don’t think I’ve seen a horse work better in the 23 years we’ve been at Middleham [his training base].’
‘He’s got an awfully high cruising speed and he can quicken off it as well. Clifford Lee rode him for the first time in a long time and said it was like driving a car with ten gears. Every time you move on him, he goes forward.’ Glowing words of praise, for sure.
I am a great fan, too, of trainer Clive Cox’s GHOSTWRITER, although there is not much doubt that he will be even better over longer distances than a mile and that he could progress too for his first run of the season. That old adage ‘fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby’, springs to mind because I can see Ghostwriter running a big race even if he does not quite make the first three.
However, the suggestion is to back both Night Raider and Ghostwriter each way at 16-1, with plenty of bookies offering that price on both horses (look on Oddschecker or another odds comparison website to get the best prices).
Alyanaabi has, according to reports, been pleasing his trainer, Owen Burrows, on the gallops and is another horse I like but he has a mountain to climb in turning around the form of the Dewhurst when second to City of Troy, beaten three and a half lengths.
The unbeaten Notable Speech, the talented Task Force and the well-thought-of Iberian are others with a ‘shout’ in a fascinating race that should also throw up plenty of clues for the Betfred Derby next month.
The Qipco 1000 Guineas on Sunday (Newmarket, 3.40 p.m.) is even more competitive and I am not going to put up a bet in the race. I was tempted to tip See The Fire for the formidable Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy trainer/jockey combination.
She is a beautifully bred filly and open to any amount of improvement this season but I haven’t liked the way she drifted left, giving away ground, on all three of her runs last season. If she does the same again on Sunday, it could cost her the race.
Instead, I will put up a tip for next week’s Chester Cup run a week today. Like most gamblers, I have plenty of weaknesses and one of them is to stay too loyal to horses I like even when they have let me down or lost their form.
Having made that admission, I am in danger of making exactly the same mistake with ZOFFEE, who ran poorly twice over hurdles in the most recent jumps season and fared just as badly on his final three runs on the flat last season. In short, that’s five bad runs in a row.
However, Zoffee was second on the Chester Cup a year ago off an official mark 3 lbs higher and, if he can repeat that run, he could well go one better next Friday.
I had worried that Zoffee had, at the age of eight, simply fallen out of love with the game but then I became encouraged by recent comments from his trainer Hugh Palmer, who told an attheraces.com stable tour: “This time last year we were really struggling to get Zoffee to come [right] and he was only just ready to run when we ran him in the Chester Cup. He just missed out by a neck which was agony.
‘He seems to be well ahead on where he was last year, and I am really happy with him. His work has been excellent, he looks fantastic, and he is 3lb lower [in the official ratings] than when going to Chester last year. If we can get a bit of luck, I think he goes there with a proper chance.’ Palmer knows his geese from his swans so let’s hope he has delivered a spot-on assessment of his horse’s chances.
Last year’s Chester Cup was run on soft ground too and, if the forecast is right, the ground should be quicker this year which will suit Zoffee better. As always when backing a horse ante-post at Chester, I would hope for a low draw. All in all, I am happy to back Zoffee each way at 16-1 with most bookies, all paying four places.
It’s not impossible he will be that sort of price in a week’s time with more places but those odds are good enough for me to put down some of my hard earned now.
I was disappointed with the way some of my tips ran last weekend on the last day of the jumps’ seasons but I was happy to have landed some nice priced winners over the course of the past six months and to have shown a profit of just over 42 points on all recommended bets. My thanks to those who have made recent comments saying they have enjoyed this column during the jumps’ season and made a few bob too.
I have to admit that my recent betting record had been better over the jumps than the flat but I am relishing the prospect of getting stuck into the new season, especially as most horses now have a run or two under their belts and, with that, their race fitness is no longer a big concern.
Last weekend’s settled bets: – 7.6 points.
1 point each way Lively Citizen at 15-2 for the AK Bets Best Price Every Runner Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Court in the Act at 12-1 for the bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places.
Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Threeunderthrufive at 20-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Desertmore House at 25-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/5th odds, 4 places. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Amirite at7-1 for the bet365 Gold Cup, 1/5th odds, 7 places. 5th. + 0.4 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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