What Brown’s speech will tell us about his election plans

The word is that Gordon Brown’s speech will not mention when he might go to the country. Indeed, judging by his rather tetchy performance on the Today Programme this morning he appears to regretting letting the speculation reach such a fever pitch. But his address will still give us plenty of clues to his thinking. If it is stuffed with, to borrow a phrase, eye-catching initiatives with which he can be personally associated such as this deep clean of hospitals and a reversal on 24 hour drinking, which he hinted heavily at this morning, then it will suggest that he really is going to go. But if he sets out a more long term vision then he is likely waiting until the spring.

One other shift worth noting is that November 1st seems to be emerging as the new favoured autumn date. The thinking is that it would undercut Gordon’s new father of the nation image to call an election during the Tory conference and, perhaps more importantly, many families will be away on half term on October 25th which could have unwanted effects on Labour turn-out.