During his 21 consecutive years in power Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has proven many of his critics, and Turkish opinion polls wrong. Once again he has won a decisive victory in the country’s presidential elections. In the end, Turks cast their votes for stability, despite a considerable number of western analysts expecting the opposite outcome earlier this year.
Now, what does that mean for Turkish-British bilateral relations?
It’s no secret that Europe’s security starts at Turkey’s borders. Various regional conflicts – such as Iraq, and Syria – have proven this to be the case. After the unprecedented refugee crises over the last decade, western countries bitterly realised that without cooperating with Ankara, controlling massive migration waves and security issues is not possible.
Despite various serious crises with the US and Germany, London has enjoyed relatively calm relations with Ankara, especially after Brexit. After the Ukraine war, Britain began to see Turkey as an even more valuable partner. Britain has praised Turkey’s role in brokering grain deals with Russia and Ukraine. Britain’s relations with Turkey are expected to continue and deepen during Erdoğan’s new term.
After the devastating earthquakes in Turkey, the UK has shown its utmost solidarity with the quake victims. Andrew Mitchell – the British Minister of State for Development and Africa – made a statement during his visit to the quake-hit area, summing up the cooperation between the two countries: ‘We have strong political ties. We are Nato’s leading partners. We are as close to Turkey as anyone else.’
As cooperation deepens it is worth admitting that the road to deep ties between Turkey and Britain will not be entirely smooth. Erdoğan’s decisive stance against terrorist organisations such as the PKK and FETO will not change. He will also keep defending Turkey’s rights in the Aegean and the East Mediterranean against Greece’s maximalist claims.
In this election, Erdogan received many votes from secularist and Ataturkist parts of society. These ‘once enemies, now friends’ secularists gave Erdogan their support because of his forceful foreign policy. This is why Erdogan will stick to his independent, protective, and mediatory foreign stance. If policymakers in London understand these drivers of Erdoğan’s politics, relations between the two countries may continue to improve.
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