Shortly after 2 p.m., the results of the SNP leadership election will be announced at Edinburgh’s Murrayfield Stadium. Three candidates are vying to succeed First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, though it is widely accepted that the race is really only between the two frontrunners; the winner is expected to be Humza Yousaf or Kate Forbes. While it’s still uncertain which candidate will win, today’s announcement will come as a relief to many politicians and party members who have followed a contest that has, at many points, proved damaging to the SNP’s reputation.
Last week saw a heated exchange between the leaders of the opposition parties and the current First Minister during Sturgeon’s 286th – and final – First Minister’s Questions. This was followed by an emotional speech from Sturgeon. Pleasantries came from Labour’s Anas Sarwar and the Conservatives’ Douglas Ross – although not without a sprinkling of criticism. Sturgeon will formally tender her resignation to the King today following the results.
Regardless of the winner, Sturgeon’s succession signals a new era of Scottish politics. Aged 37 and 32 respectively, both Yousaf and Forbes would enter Bute House as the youngest-ever first minister. Yousaf would become the first ethnic minority politician to hold the position, while Forbes would only be the second woman to take the role. Yousaf is the SNP establishment’s choice and self-declared ‘continuity’ candidate; Forbes on the other hand has not received the backing of many senior SNP politicians, and stands for change.
Though Yousaf came out on top in the only poll of party members, Forbes has consistently performed better in polls of SNP voters and the wider public. And not much is known about the makeup of the party’s membership, making election predictions more difficult. This is an issue which sparked controversy during the race after it emerged the party had supplied false information about membership figures to the press, leading to the resignation of head of media Murray Foote and, shortly afterwards, chief executive (and Sturgeon’s husband) Peter Murrell.
For many party members, the close of the contest will be welcome. The reputation of the SNP has not fared well.
Though the next SNP leader will be announced today, Scottish parliament doesn’t meet until tomorrow to officially select its new first minister. All MSPs will then vote for their preferred candidate – after which their recommendation will be presented to the King. Although there is a vote, today’s winner is expected by most to be confirmed as the new leader. Wednesday will see the new first minister sworn in at the Court of Session in Edinburgh, the day before First Minister’s Questions on Thursday, not allowing the new leader much time to settle into the role.
By the end of the week, the new first minister will be in the process of appointing their cabinet. Sturgeon ensured that hers was a gender-balanced one, which caused minor controversy at the time as experienced ministers were moved elsewhere to allow more women to take positions. This time around, the selection of ministers will be watched with more interest – particularly if Forbes wins. She has struggled to find support from senior SNP politicians, with MSP Fergus Ewing one of her only major endorsors, alongside former SNP MSP Alex Neil. Forbes has already said that she would find a place for Yousaf in her cabinet if she is successful, though her ‘maybe not in health’ quip during one of the leadership debates raised eyebrows. Yousaf has been non-committal about who he would appoint though, for the sake of unity, it is expected that Forbes would receive a cabinet position.
The five-week contest has been a fiery one. For many party members, the close of the contest will be welcome. The reputation of the SNP has not fared well, as party infighting and personal attacks have exposed the underlying tensions that Sturgeon’s party’s unified front did so well to hide. The new first minister will have their work cut out trying to regain the trust of voters – and party members – after what has been an especially fractious period. Equally, they might find themselves facing the additional challenge of leading a minority government. It’s too early to tell if the SNP has lost its hold over Scottish politics, but the last few weeks have seen opposition parties ‘relish’ the next election.
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