What is the gamble for Brown?

Much discussion over what Ed Balls meant when he said that the “gamble” was to delay the election, not hold it now. What could he mean? The only interpretation being given is that he thinks his chances of winning will increase from the 11% lead of today. But I’d like to offer another one. Can you see Brown in November 2011 on a podium at a conference pledging to lead Britain until 2015 or 2016? Nor can I. I suspect that this master strategist knows this, and knows he has only one election in him. He’ll have seen from Blair what happens when that election is won. One’s authority collapses. So to go early would curtail his time in power: the gamble is on longer power, but a later election. Labour will be polling in the marginals soon, so a November poll remains a live option. But remember: this may be the last election Brown fights.