A seized luxury campervan, a raid on a politician’s home and two arrests. The latest twists in Police Scotland’s investigation into how the SNP spent £600,000 of IndyRef2 donations wouldn’t seem out of place in an Ian Rankin novel.
Just a year ago, Nicola Sturgeon looked invincible. Now the SNP is in freefall and Humza Yousaf, its new leader, is unable to give a clear answer when asked if his party is currently a criminal organisation. The latest arrest – of the party’s treasurer, Colin Beattie – was on the same day as Yousaf’s supposed policy relaunch day (‘not helpful,’ he said) and more developments are expected from Operation Branchform, the investigation into the missing funds for a referendum campaign that never took place. Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell was arrested (and released) earlier this month. The former first minister is now the only senior SNP official named on the accounts who has not been arrested as part of the finance probe. ‘It’s one rolling disaster movie,’ says a party figure.
Many in the SNP believe it is a matter of when, not if, Humza Yousaf is pushed out
‘New leadership: a fresh start for Scotland,’ promised the continuity candidate in his relaunch. He had hoped to make news by marking distance from Sturgeon, postponing several of her policies. Instead, the most memorable moment was Yousaf’s declaration that he is ‘of course surprised when one of my colleagues is arrested’. By now the public will be rather less surprised. It was certainly curious to find a £110,000 campervan parked on the driveway of Murrell’s 92-year-old mother. If it was intended for campaigning, as the SNP claims, why use her drive?
No one has yet been charged. But if the donations row goes to trial, the drama could run for years. Under current Scottish rules, serving politicians can be charged and even convicted but not have to give up their seats unless sentenced to jail for more than a year.
When Alex Salmond faced his sexual assault charges, the trial took place 14 months after he was charged. Fraud trials take longer and would probably have to be heard in the High Court. All this potentially adds up for a 2024 general election nightmare for the SNP, whose critics would be able to portray the party as an essentially criminal enterprise in the process of being busted.
Even if there are no further developments in the police investigation, many in the SNP believe it is a matter of when, not if, Yousaf is pushed out. His comments that there was not sufficient reason yet to suspend either Murrell or Sturgeon from his party have landed badly with party figures who say colleagues have been kicked out for far less.
One old hand predicts that Yousaf won’t be removed imminently – better to let him be associated with whatever more bad news is to come. But less than a month into his premiership he has already lost any hope of being seen as a fresh face. ‘The party won’t move against him yet. It’s not how they work,’ says a party source. ‘He will hang on until the general election next year.’
Some pessimistic SNP politicians fear the party could lose as many as 20 seats to Labour in 2024. Supporters of Kate Forbes – who believe she was robbed in the leadership contest – think she can now stand again as the ideal candidate to rebuild. She ran not just against Yousaf but against the party establishment. She is already developing a base: a splinter group of out-of-vogue SNP politicians who plan to challenge the Scottish government to do ‘more with the powers it has’ domestically to tackle poverty.
Forbes is being talked up among opposition MPs as a ‘future Sunak’: the point being that she, too, would be the loser who goes on to win after the leadership implodes. Forbes, a Highlander disparaged for her Free Church faith, has always kept a safe distance from the SNP hierarchy in Edinburgh. ‘Not everyone has realised how serious the situation is, but there will be realisation,’ says an SNP supporter. ‘Only then can the party change in the way it needs.’
For Scotland’s other parties, the SNP’s worsening fortunes offer plenty of opportunity. Salmond wants to use his former protégée’s woes to rally support for his pro-independence party Alba. For now, SNP figures are sceptical about the likelihood of mass defections. But they do believe party members are there for the taking. Alba reports 700 new members, but the membership is still only around 7,000, as compared to the SNP’s 70,000.
Alba strategists hope that its improved polling – to 5 per cent – will be enough to convince some SNP politicians to jump ship. Salmond hopes to present Alba as the more serious pro-independence party that won’t get into bed with the Greens. Seven SNP politicians recently backed a Westminster motion to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Dolly Parton’s ‘I Will Always Love You’ – something cited by Alba as proof that the SNP has the wrong priorities.
On his relaunch day, Yousaf mistakenly referred to ‘Keir Sarwar’ – a sign that he’s really worried about Anas Sarwar, his fellow Hutchesons’ Grammar alumnus who runs Scottish Labour. The Tories are worried about him too. Douglas Ross, the party leader, has openly said that there are some circumstances where Tories voting for Labour would make sense if Sarwar is better placed to take the fight to the SNP. His comments led to anger in No. 10, which holds the view that the Scottish Tory leader should back Scottish Tory candidates.
The schadenfreude among Scottish Tories over the SNP’s woes is fading fast. ‘It had been a point of fun that the SNP was doing so badly, but now there’s concern,’ says one senior Conservative. ‘Every blow to the SNP is a win for Labour.’ There could still be some Conservative pickings if the nationalist vote subsides, but not as many as for Labour.
For now, the Scottish Labour attack line is to depict the SNP as a party of sleaze and a tired government that’s run out of ideas and lost the ability to go on. But to really win over some wavering pro-Indy voters, Labour will be pressed on its position on independence. Would it commit to an independence referendum, under certain circumstances, if public support was there? If it did, at this point some SNP politicians might even think about offering their support.
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