‘Just what is Tony up to?’ That was what one Labour MP asked, quizzically, when I bumped into them in Westminster this morning. Blair has made quite the splash with his latest political intervention, writing an introduction to a pamphlet that criticises net zero. The former prime minister warns that the debate on climate change had become ‘irrational’, with people in rich countries no longer willing to make financial sacrifices ‘when they know that their impact on global emissions is minimal’. Attempts to phase out fossil fuels are – in the short term – ‘doomed to fail’.
Blair’s argument is that a backlash against climate change policies is threatening to ‘derail the whole agenda’
Blair refrained from criticising Labour ministers or individual policies – but it was clearly an unwelcome intervention for No. 10. Environment Secretary Steve Reed had the thankless task of responding to Blair’s comments this morning:
He’s making a valid and important contribution to a very significant debate that we’re having. I agree with much of what he said, but not absolutely every word and dot and comma of it. But this government is moving to clean energy because it’s best for Britain.
It is the timing, more than anything, which is both perplexing and irritating some in government today. Ministers and aides are struggling to understand why Blair chose to make this intervention on the eve of the local elections. With polls opening in less than 24 hours, some fear that Blair’s comments could bolster not just Reform and the Tories, but also the Greens.
Already, some within Labour are briefing against their former leader, pointing out that his eponymous institute has advised the government of Saudi Arabia. Just yesterday, Downing Street rejected suggestions that a reliance on renewable power was behind this week’s blackouts in Spain and Portugal after Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, said it was likely to be the cause.
A spokesperson for Blair insists that he does support the government’s 2050 net zero target – enabling Keir Starmer to stand up at Prime Ministers’ Questions and tell MPs that his predecessor agrees with him. Allies of both premiers have insisted previously that the two men enjoy a good relationship, with Sir Tony interviewing Sir Keir on stage at the Tony Blair Institute’s conference in 2023.
The more interesting question though is about policy, not personality. On net zero, Blair has identified the credibility gap between voters’ expressed and revealed preferences. Both the continued outbursts of Gary Smith of the GMB union – who has said Labour’s green policies are costing jobs – and the ceaseless rise of Reform UK should offer Labour food for thought on the current messaging and thinking behind net zero.
Blair’s argument is that a backlash against climate change policies is threatening to ‘derail the whole agenda’. On that, clearly, he is right.
Comments