With a protracted recession on the cards, and with the Tories storming into larger and larger poll leads, one question is increasingly important: what would a Tory government do to fix the economy? So far, their grand plan has been to “share the proceeds of growth”. It’s always been a nebulous concept, but now – as Iain Martin points out in an excellent post over at Three Line Whip – it’s probably also a redundant one. After all, when there’s no growth, there’s nothing to share.
So what’s the Tory Plan B? Whilst it doesn’t offer any direct answers, George Osborne’s interview in today’s Telegraph does hint that they’re starting to think differently. Here’s the relevant passage:
“Mr Osborne uses the interview to disclose that he is pushing ahead with plans to offer new tax breaks to married couples – an ‘early priority’ for a future Tory government. He is also working on a new ‘fiscal framework’ that will govern how much he can borrow, tax and spend. It will be overseen by an independent panel of experts.
However, he still faces accusations from many to the Right of the Conservatives that the party is struggling to deliver a coherent economic message. Mr Osborne has pledged to match Labour’s spending plans until at least 2009 and has been reluctant to offer firm promises of big tax cuts.
But the shadow chancellor rejects such criticism. ‘I think there is a massive opportunity for the Conservative Party to say, ‘look you have had your go’ at trying to use Left-wing methods of simply redistributing cash to achieve a fairer society. Now let the Conservatives show that it’s about more than redistributing cash. It’s about giving people real opportunity and tackling the causes of poverty.'”
As I see it, the Tory commitment to Labour spending totals is becoming increasingly unworkable. In a time of fiscal hardship, there are strong fiscal – and moral – arguments against increasing taxation and borrowing. That leaves only a reduction in public spending as a possible cure.
Over the past few years, the worry in Tory circles has been that if they admit this publically, then the Government will gleefully peddle its “Tory cuts vs Labour investment” mantra. But things are different now. The sun is no longer shining on the British economy, and Brown’s Bubble is bursting, if it hasn’t burst already. One senses that the Tories are starting to appreciate this. Talk of a “new fiscal framework” may be the first real sign of that. And it may also mark the point at which Osborne & Co. finally departed from those Labour spending totals.
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