Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The case for delaying 21 June

Word is that Boris Johnson will delay the 21 June re-opening by two weeks, possibly even a month — an announcement that has caused some division of opinion in the offices of The Spectator. In the circumstances (the Indian variant growing exponentially) I can see the case for waiting another week or so until we have more data. That’s not say that I want delay, just that the rise of the Indian variant in the UK has made me see the abolition of remaining restrictions as a finely-balanced argument. Whereas, a few weeks ago, I thought the facts heavily favoured going ahead with a full reopening.  I discuss this with Kate Andrews, Katy Balls and Cindy Yu in today’s Coffee House Shots podcast.

While the Indian variant spreads, almost everyone in the at-risk age groups is now protected – so we expect it to translate farther less into hospital numbers (as per Bolton). But it’s early days. The Indian variant has been dominant for only a few weeks. For a long time, Britain had the lowest Covid levels in Europe. Now, we’re mid-range and our Covid is growing at pretty much the fastest rate in the continent. We used to have the lowest Covid in the G7, now it’s the highest. The Indian variant has changed the UK story: we may soon be the Europe’s capital of the India variant. The below graphs are from The Spectator’s data hub.

Against this, we have latest hospital figures – less than half the number envisaged by the lowest of the five SAGE scenarios published when the 21 June date was set.

I’ve stopped seeing 21 June as a big event: our recovery from Covid will be a process

Given that we have had 15 months of lockdown in its various forms and almost back to normal now, it seems reasonable to wait another week or two to collect more data and see if the link between cases and hospitalisations has indeed been broken by the vaccine.

But there are very valid concerns about the impact of a delay.

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