Tonight’s New Hampshire primary is very unlikely to provide the sort of razor-thin margin we saw in Iowa
last week. Mitt Romney looks assured of a comfortable win – Nate Silver’s poll-based model (above)
gives him a 98 per cent chance of victory. If one of the others did somehow beat him, it’d be the biggest upset of any modern US primary. The only real questions are just how
comfortable it’ll be (20 points? 30? or just 10?), and who will come second.
The polls suggest the battle for runner-up will be between Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. Paul is the favourite to take it, but the momentum of the past few days has been with Huntsman. Santorum and Gingrich look to be within striking distance, but theirs will more likely be a fight for fourth.
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