The events of 2008 should make us all wary about making predictions. So instead, I’m going to flag up some things that I think are worth watching out for in 2009.
The Chinese government’s legitimacy is predicated upon rapid economic growth, so what will happen there when the downturn hits? I’m fascinated to see if there is more social unrest, whether newly affluent urbanites become as irked at the Communist party as folk in the countryside and whether the leadership resorts to nationalist sabre-rattling in an attempt to shore up its position.
Iran is the problem that hasn’t gone away. As Richard Beeston notes in The Times this morning, Iran could have enough fissile material to build a bomb in 2009. It’ll be intriguing to see how Obama handles this. Personally, I’m convinced that no
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