The events of 2008 should make us all wary about making predictions. So instead, I’m going to flag up some things that I think are worth watching out for in 2009.
The Chinese government’s legitimacy is predicated upon rapid economic growth, so what will happen there when the downturn hits? I’m fascinated to see if there is more social unrest, whether newly affluent urbanites become as irked at the Communist party as folk in the countryside and whether the leadership resorts to nationalist sabre-rattling in an attempt to shore up its position.
Iran is the problem that hasn’t gone away. As Richard Beeston notes in The Times this morning, Iran could have enough fissile material to build a bomb in 2009. It’ll be intriguing to see how Obama handles this. Personally, I’m convinced that no US president can afford to let Iran go nuclear. The earlier Obama goes for direct negotiations, the more serious I’ll believe he is about dealing with this problem. Every diplomatic avenue will have to be exhausted—and seen to be exhausted—before the world and the American public can be convinced of the need for more forceful actions.
In domestic politics, I suspect that this will be a good year for the Tories. But will we see an MP actually defect to them? As James Kirkup argued the other day, a southern Lib Dem jumping ship could be a harbinger of a political realignment in the south. Another southern thing to watch is what the political consequences of an angry south are as the region gets hit hardest by the recession, the devastation of the financial services industry and collapsing house prices.
Anyway, Happy New Year everyone and thanks for reading in 2008.
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