The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has warned the government that the second wave of Covid-19 could be more deadly than the first, but may be spread over a greater period. Downing Street is now reportedly working on the assumption that deaths will peak at a lower level than in the spring (when they topped just over 1,000 a day) but will continue in the hundreds for far longer, possibly even for months throughout the winter. More than 25,000 are predicted to be in hospital by the end of November — higher than the spring peak.
Sage’s workings for this projection have not been shared, but it is likely based on two assumptions: first, that the R-rate is lower now than it was in the spring; and second, that the R-rate will not be suppressed as quickly as it was before without a full lockdown. Sage’s projection, overseen by chief scientist Sir Patrick Vallance, was reportedly presented to No.
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