The Scottish Parliament goes into recess on Wednesday ahead of devolved elections on 6 May. That gives Nicola Sturgeon three days to see off her opponents (inside the SNP as much as outside) before the campaign begins proper.
Before she gets there, we will have to face the publication of the Holyrood inquiry report. This is the SNP-chaired parliamentary panel tasked with investigating the SNP government’s mishandling of sexual harassment allegations against former SNP first minister Alex Salmond. Sturgeon’s government launched an internal investigation into Salmond, her one-time mentor turned nemesis, that was ruled by the Court of Session to be ‘unlawful’, ‘procedurally unfair’ and ‘tainted by apparent bias’. The civil servant appointed to investigate Salmond had made prior contact with the complainants against him.
Does Salmond have anything else up his sleeve?
The parliamentary inquiry has been a drawn-out process, in large part thanks to the Scottish Government’s obstruction, from failing to hand over documents to refusing to allow certain civil servants to give evidence. The opposition thinks the committee’s remit was too narrow and left vast swathes of the Sturgeon-Salmond saga out of the picture.
Even so, what has been leaked so far from its final report suggests that the committee has concluded that Sturgeon did mislead MSPs, which could be a breach of the ministerial code. That matter is being considered in turn by former Irish prosecutor James Hamilton, who serves as the independent adviser to the Scottish Ministerial Code. The opposition has also complained his remit is too restrictive.
Sturgeon on the other hand has tended to pivot back to Hamilton during questioning, suggesting she is confident he will rule in her favour. A breach of the ministerial code, perhaps, but only a technical one. The key word is ‘knowingly’: the code requires ministers to have deliberately misled parliament.
Then, on Wednesday, the Scottish Conservatives will move a motion of no-confidence in Sturgeon at Holyrood. The combined strength of the SNP and the Greens means she can survive it. But it will be another opportunity for the opposition to rehearse the lines that will dominate their election campaigns.
There are, of course, the Rumsfeldian ‘unknown unknowns’ and one is what Alex Salmond will do next. Even if Sturgeon can tough out the Holyrood report and the confidence vote — and if Hamilton comes back with a fudge — she will have to wait and see what Salmond does in response. He’s thrown seemingly everything at her. Does he have anything else up his sleeve?
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