What will be the next plot twist?

The rebellion does not appear to have taken off yet but neither has it been stamped out. If a senior Labour figure who is not regarded as one of the usual suspects were to join in the call for a contest that could be a trigger for a significant number of Labour MPs to move.

One thing that Siobhain McDonagh’s resignation has sparked off is speculation about what John Reid might do, McDonagh was Reid’s PPS. It is worth noting that Reid, who is standing down at the next election, has not sounded off against Brown or the direction of his government in the relatively frequent way that some other Blairites have. An intervention from him would carry considerable weight. Also because Reid is leaving politics he could couch an intervention as an act of loyalty to the party rather than as an attempt at personal advancement. This, though, is, at this point, speculation but indicative of the febrile mood in Westminster.