James Forsyth James Forsyth

What would an economic recovery do to Labour’s poll rating?

The big question of the next 11 months is whether Labour will benefit from any economic upturn. On this front, Anthony Wells’ post on the relationship, if any, between economic optimism and Labour’s poll standing is particularly interesting. Anthony concludes that:

“The relationship seems to break down entirely though from the start of this year: economic confidence has returned, but doesn’t seem to have done Labour any favours at all. It appears economic troubles dragged the government down, but there’s no sign yet of economic recovery picking them up again.”

The problem for Labour is that even if the economy is growing again by the time of the next election, unemployment will still be rising and so there will be little feel good factor. I also suspect that the anti-politics mood of the moment means that voters will not be inclined to give the government much credit for any economic uptick.

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