Sebastian Payne

Where might Nigel Farage stand ‘south of the river’ in 2015?

Where might Nigel Farage stand ‘south of the river’ in 2015?
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Nigel Farage has told BBC News this afternoon he intends to stand in a seat 'south of the river' at the general election next year. Despite undertaking a victory lap of Essex today, Farage has proclaimed he won’t be standing there:

'There are several seats here in Essex that are absolutely winnable for us in a general election next year. I haven't yet decided what I'm going to do but I will choose a seat; it will be a seat south of the area.'

listen to ‘Farage: I will run in 2015’ on Audioboo

</p><p>(function() { var po = document.createElement("script"); po.type = "text/javascript"; po.async = true; po.src = "https://d15mj6e6qmt1na.cloudfront.net/cdn/embed.js"; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(po, s); })();</p><p></p><p></p><p>Combined with <a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/why-nigel-farage-will-stand-in-south-thanet-and-six-other-options/" target="_blank">the criteria <em>Coffee House</em> understands</a> Farage has for choosing a seat, the options are slowly narrowing. The most likely options are South Thanet — which ticks all of his criteria — and Eastleigh, which would be fighting the Liberal Democrats in a straight re-run of the 2013 by-election. In both instances, Farage visited the seats in the last week of the local election campaign, suggesting he has an particular interest in those area. Here’s a breakdown the potential constituencies:</p><p><h3>1. South Thanet</h3></p><p><strong>Marginal</strong>: Yes — Tories took seat in 2010 with 7 per cent swing</p><p><strong>Local connection</strong>: Yes — Farage is a Kent man and an MEP for the region</p><p><strong>No incumbent</strong>: Yes — Laura Sandys (Con) is standing down</p><p><strong>South of the river</strong>: Yes</p><p><strong>Electoral Calculus prediction</strong>: 65 per cent chance of CON hold</p><p></p><p>[datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/U8o7d/index.html"]</p><p><h3>2. Eastleigh</h3></p><p><strong>Marginal</strong>: Yes — Ukip almost took seat in 2013 by-election</p><p><strong>Local connection</strong>: No — although Farage is a frequent visitor</p><p><strong>No incumbent</strong>: No — Ukip</p><p><strong>South of the river</strong>: Yes</p><p><strong>Electoral Calculus prediction</strong>: 54 per cent chance of CON gain</p><p></p><p>[datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/4LRJM/index.html"]</p><p><h3>3. Dover</h3></p><p><strong>Marginal</strong>: Yes — Tories took the seat from Labour with a 5k majority</p><p><strong>Local connection</strong>: Yes — Farage is a Kent man and an MEP for the region</p><p><strong>No incumbent</strong>: No</p><p><strong>South of the river</strong>: Yes</p><p><strong>Electoral Calculus prediction</strong>: None – 50% LAB gain/50% CON hold</p><p></p><p>[datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/eUeQW/index.html"]</p><p></p><p><strong>UPDATE</strong>: Paddy Power are giving the following odds on these seats — South Thanet 5/6, Eastleigh 7/1 and Dover 12/1