Which way will Egypt turn?

The world is full of jubilation this morning, and I wish I could join in. Perhaps we are indeed witnessing Egypt on its way to democracy, thereby inspiring a similar wave of uprisings in the Arab world. It’s not hard to be mesmerised by the prospect of the Arabs rejecting the dictators foisted on them by the West in the name of security, and choosing their own democratic future. The ‘Wind of Change’ narrative is one we in the West are familiar with, as memories of the 1989 revolutions are still fresh.
 
You can see the Egyptian events in two ways. Many – including, it seems, Barack Obama – view the revolution as being a success in itself: that the protesters wanted rid of Hosni Mubarak, he’s gone so it’s mission accomplished. And a genuine cause for real celebration. Obama, yesterday, spoke of a ‘democratic Egypt’ as if such an outcome were in the bag. I hope he’s right.
 
The alternative view, which I’m afraid I subscribe to, is that a revolution should be judged by its results. We don’t have a democratic Egypt, but instead one run by its military. The “military has served patriotically and responsibly as a caretaker to the state,” said Obama last night. Really? Not quite the image that springs to mind when one reads the Guardian’s disturbing profile of Egypt’s brutal military. And will the military take power? I found this piece, by Prof Ellis Goldberg, depressingly persuasive. “The army presents itself as a force of order and a neutral arbiter between contending opponents,” she says. “But it has significant interests of its own to defend, and it is by no means neutral.”
 
It’s being said that the Egyptian military would not dare indulge in the old tactic of indefinitely delaying elections, because the will of the people is so strong – and because the America’s money talks, and it now says ‘democracy’. But Saudi money talks too, and Riyadh is no lover of democratic freedom. Especially when (as Arab News tells us this morning) Saudis are congratulating Egyptians on the streets of Riyadh.
 
One of the biggest mistakes you can make in politics is to judge something by its intentions, rather than its results. You can give a long list of nights were it was possible to celebrate at the successful overthrown of a despot – who were, in the end, replaced with something as bad, or worse. Too often, the choice in the Arab world has been between Bad Guy or Worse Guy.
 
I do hope to join in the celebrations about Egypt’s new stable, democratic and pluralistic future. But, curmudgeon that I am, I’m going to wait for a few surer sign that such an outcome is likely.