On the SNP’s list of regrets, where does the Bute House Agreement with the Greens rank? Since the agreement, the Scottish government’s deposit return scheme has been delayed, Highly Protected Marine Areas halted and the gender reform bill blocked. This month marks the two-year anniversary of the SNP-Green coalition, but has the partnership – and the pro-independence majority that comes with it – been worth it for the nationalists?
‘There’s a huge amount that’s been achieved,’ says Patrick Harvie, co-leader of the Scottish Greens along with Lorna Slater. Certainly the deal resulted in Harvie and Slater becoming the first Green politicians in the UK to gain ministerial portfolios. But more than that – from free bus passes for the under-22s to investment in the environment to ‘decarbonising heat’ – the minister for net zero believes that good has come of the arrangement, despite his party’s negative press.
As for any drawbacks the coalition has faced, the blame has been, surprise surprise, laid at Westminster’s door: Harvie accuses the UK government of being ‘mischievous’ and having ‘abused its power’ by blocking measures that have received support in the Scottish parliament. Is there a touch of hypocrisy to Harvie’s assertion? One of his former colleagues Robin Harper wrote on quitting the party that the Scottish Greens ‘should listen as much as they shout, or the Green agenda will not progress’ while some in the SNP have long felt the Greens are ‘toxic’. ‘There hasn’t been a lot of cooperation from the UK government,’ Harvie admits, ‘but it’s not been for want of trying.’
The co-leader’s assurances haven’t been quite enough to silence his party’s critics though. A growing number of SNP politicians have expressed discomfort with the arrangement, particularly those representing rural constituencies. Kate Forbes, one of the frontrunners in the SNP leadership race, told an audience at the Edinburgh Fringe this week that her constituents were concerned about how ‘urban-centric environmentalists’ seem to have more of a say on the rural economy than they do. Fergus Ewing MSP has dismissed his party’s coalition partners as ‘wine bar revolutionaries’, urging First Minister Humza Yousaf to ‘detach himself from this dalliance’. Angus MacNeil MP, recently expelled from the SNP after a bust-up with the chief whip, has described the Greens as ‘weighty baggage’ who are ‘damaging the government’s… ability to do competent business’. Ash Regan, who also ran to be SNP leader, has snubbed the deal as the ‘Bute House Disaster’.
The Greens face problems closer to home: Robin Harper’s scathing resignation letter gave voice to concerns about the party’s leftwards shift – he wrote that the Scottish Greens are ‘moving into the gap left by the Socialists’ – and its influence on the SNP. Harvie rebukes Harper’s claim and instead says that it is ‘disappointing’ that the former MSP has ‘clearly moved away from the Scottish Green party’s position’.
But is this a position that the Scottish public supports? The Greens have been particularly vocal about their opposition to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s commitment to the creation of thousands of North Sea oil and gas jobs – yet a recent poll shows that the majority of Scots are in favour. This comes a week after Gers figures revealed that Scotland’s public spending deficit has fallen largely due to higher oil and gas revenues, spurring further debate about the role of fossil fuels in assisting the economy’s move towards renewables. On social issues, the Greens have united around the Scottish government’s proposed reforms to the gender bill – and yet two-thirds of the Scottish public oppose self-identification.
After months of concerning polling for Yousaf’s party, it will be difficult for members to see their junior coalition partners being predicted success.
Does the SNP worry about the gap between where their coalition partners stand on certain key policy areas and the opinion of the Scottish public? Wellbeing economy secretary Neil Gray – who in the past has reportedly reprimanded Green co-leader Slater for her approach to business – is adamant that despite the problems faced by the SNP-Green partnership over the last two years, entering into the agreement was the correct choice for his party. ‘It was right two years ago. It is still right now,’ Gray says. ‘It secures a pro-independence majority within parliament.’
Yet the infighting continues. A group of SNP politicians unhappy with the arrangement are calling for a member vote on the Bute House Agreement at the SNP party conference in October. While Forbes wants to ‘[check] in with members’ about continuing with the arrangement, Regan argues that the SNP has to ‘get back to prioritising Scotland’s needs over narrow, privileged interests’. Yousaf and his allies have defended the pact, and they say that the recent leadership campaign, where Yousaf stood on a pro-Green platform, served as a referendum of sorts. Opponents of the deal retort that since that time there has been a ‘material change in circumstances’ due to the ‘derailment of flagship Green party policies’ – and so a new vote on the future of the Bute House Agreement is necessary.
Instead of being purely directed at humiliating policy hiccups, perhaps some of this animosity stems from the relatively positive electoral projections for the Greens. According to polling expert Professor John Curtice, the Scottish Greens are predicted to gain two MSPs in the 2026 Holyrood election, while the SNP looks to lose 15. This follows a Panelbase survey in June that predicted the SNP could lose over half of its Westminster seats. More recent YouGov research puts the party only four points ahead of Labour while predicting a drop in support for the SNP in Holyrood. After months of concerning polling for Yousaf’s party, it will be difficult for members to see their junior coalition partners being predicted success.
If there is a sense of frustration about the Green’s poll performance compared to that of the SNP, this won’t be helped by the Green party’s controversial decision to run a candidate in the upcoming Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election – in effect, splitting the pro-independence vote. Some figures suggest that the Scottish Greens are the second most popular party among 16-24 year olds in Scotland, while over a fifth of 16-34 year olds support them after the SNP and Labour. There are certainly concerns that younger pro-indy voters in the constituency may choose the environmentalists over the SNP.
The Bute House Agreement demonstrates a ‘huge contrast’ to the ‘toxic, polarised politics that we see elsewhere’, Harvie believes – despite the divisions it has churned up among nationalists. What has become more evident by the second anniversary of the Bute House Agreement, however, is that the main beneficiary hasn’t been the SNP, a party that was only one seat short of a parliamentary majority to begin with. Instead, the pact has conferred more benefits to its underdogs.
The deal has validated the Greens as a party, bringing them in from the fringe to mainstream political debate and placing their policies in the limelight. And after more time in the public eye, the Scottish Green party looks set to continue making electoral gains. While parts of the SNP are eager to have another vote on the Bute House Agreement, Harvie is adamant that it will last successfully until the next Holyrood election, at least. It’s in his interests that it does. It has, after all, worked out well for his party so far.
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