Who will influence the EU referendum? Martin Lewis, not June Sarpong

The Money Saving Expert Martin Lewis is apparently the most trusted voice on the EU referendum, according to a new poll. James Morris from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, who was also Ed Miliband’s former pollster, has examined the state of the referendum campaign and reports that it is very close. According to Morris’ research, 45 per cent believe Britain should remain in the EU, compared to 42 per cent who would vote to leave — a result that is within the margin of error. 11 per cent are undecided. This polling also shows a big difference in voting intentions among different demographics and age groups. 18-54 year old men and woman who are ABC1s are overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU, while 55+ C2DE men and women appear to have completely opposite views — 63 per cent would vote to leave the EU. Older men and women who are ABC1s are almost evenly split on the EU question: The most interesting data is on which personalities are the most trusted on whether Britain should remain in the EU. Martin Lewis is easily the most trusted figure by 71 per cent of those polled, followed by Sir James Dyson on 58 per cent. TV presenter June Sarpong, who is once of the patrons of the Stronger In campaign, is trusted by just 19 per cent, while Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron is trusted by 23 per cent of those polled: Notably for Brexit campaigners, Boris Johnson is more trusted than John Major, David Cameron and Gordon Brown — all of whom will be campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU. This will feed rumours that the Mayor of London is contemplating heading up the Leave campaign. If Boris does, he would have a 18 point lead over Stuart Rose, the main person leading the Stronger In campaign. Until the referendum gains momentum, it’s hard to judge how much of an impact these personalities will have on voting intentions. But the arguments from each side are already being formed and the public is also split on who has the most persuasive message. When asked whether ‘Remain’ or ‘Leave’ is the most persuasive, the margin is tight: 41 per cent found the arguments to remain in the EU the most convincing, compared to 39 per cent for the Leave arguments. Interestingly, the polling suggests that it was the economic arguments for both sides that were the most persuasive. Just four per cent of swing voters found the Leave message the most convincing because of its message on border controls and immigration for example, compared to 46 per cent who were persuaded by their economic message.