Mark Drakeford has announced this morning that he will stand down as Welsh Labour leader, triggering a leadership contest for a new first minister. The veteran politician pledged at the most recent Welsh elections in 2021 that he would step down mid-parliament. He has chosen to do so today on the fifth anniversary since he was sworn in as FM.
Drakeford’s resignation follows growing pressure on him to announce his retirement plans. Welsh Labour is arguably Britain’s most successful electoral force, governing Cardiff Bay since the advent of Welsh devolution some 24 years ago. But in recent weeks, Drakeford has been the subject of some rare negative briefings in the press, amid increased scrutiny over his plummeting popularity. In 2021 his soft-spoken manner and handling of the Covid virus impressed Welsh voters, who rewarded him with an increased majority and 40 per cent of the vote. But post-pandemic there are signs that he is no longer an electoral asset: one recent poll put him behind the Welsh Tory leader Andrew RT Davies for ‘preferred first minister.’ With a general election looming next year, Keir Starmer now polls much higher than Mark Drakeford in Wales – a complete reversal from just 18 months ago.
The challenge for Drakeford’s successor is to reverse that trend. Two candidates seem best placed to replace him: Vaughan Gething and Jeremy Miles. Gething, 49, is the better known of the two, having served as health minister throughout much of the pandemic before being promoted to the economy brief in 2021. A former solicitor, he was born in Zambia and would be the first ethnic minority Welsh FM. Miles, 52, has spent seven years in the Welsh parliament, with six years in a succession of briefs. Since 2021 he has impressed Labour Senedd members as minister for education and Welsh language, with RT Davies joking in the Senedd a week ago that Miles was the ‘leader in waiting.’
Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions today, Keir Starmer praised Drakeford as a ‘titan’ of Welsh politics. With polls pointing to a Labour victory in Westminster, the relationship between Starmer and Drakeford’s successor is likely to be a pivotal one.
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