Why aren’t the Tories winning?

When launching the Conservatives’ campaign this week, David Cameron told party activists that the general election was ‘on a knife edge’. He is right. His chances are little better than 50/50, which is terrifying given the calibre of his opponent. The Prime Minister is entering this election with a list of achievements matched by almost no other leader in Europe. Yet he’s struggling to beat one of the least popular opposition leaders in modern times. What has gone wrong?

It’s not the economy. Employment stands at a record high, and most voters will never have lived through such low inflation as we have today. The price of food is actually falling, as is the price of petrol; it costs £18 less to fill up an average car than it did 18 months ago. Mortgage rates stand at record lows, too — the average five-year fix is a snip at 3.1 per cent. Real wages are finally creeping up, household disposable income is at a six-year high, and the recovery gathers strength all the time. From the factory gate to the high street, confidence has returned.

To lose an election in such circumstances takes quite some doing. The absence of a Tory lead is all the more remarkable given that the polls show the Prime Minister ahead on the issues of economic competence and overall leadership ability. No one has ever lost power while leading on these two issues. But almost no one is being asked to vote for David Cameron: the choice we face on 7 May is to vote for MPs of a certain party. The problem lies with the popularity of the Conservative party, whose motives are still not entirely trusted.