Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O’Flynn

Why Channel crossings are starting again

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For a week and a half no migrants at all crossed the Channel in dinghies. A theory began to take hold that the mere prospect of migrants being transferred on to Rwanda – a plan unveiled by Home Secretary Priti Patel in mid-April – was already acting as an overwhelming deterrent to people in camps around Calais.

A few rash souls broadcast this theory directly. Tory MP Andrew Bridgen, for example, boldly declared a few days back: ‘Priti’s migrant policy is working already. No illegal migrant crossing for a week and no income for people traffickers.’

Others of a more cautious frame of mind chose to add caveats, but still allowed for the possibility of success before actual implementation of the plan. After a week of zero crossings, I declared on my own Twitter feed: ‘This will be glorious if borne out over the coming weeks, esp for all of us who have advocated offshoring. But worth noting wind direction across England is still north-easterly atm.’

On Sunday the wind dropped, the sea grew calm and the boats resumed.

Then there was that man of parts Nigel Farage, a keen deep-sea angler and Kentish Man with long experience of pootling around the Channel off Dover, who told us: ‘There are some saying Rwanda is working because virtually no migrants have come now for the last six or seven days. Believe you me, I know this subject. That is nothing to do with the prospect of being shipped off to Rwanda. It’s because there has been a persistent, strong, north-easterly wind in the English Channel. When it gets calm again, the boats will continue to come.’

And lo, today it can be declared with confidence that Nigel was right. On Sunday the wind dropped, the sea grew calm and the boats resumed.

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