Why Europe’s shift to the right may cost the Tories

On her recent visit to Washington, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves presented herself as the perfect candidate to be the next chancellor in the modern mould: an environmentalist, interventionist and protectionist similar to Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz. Reeves champions what she calls ‘securonomics’, a sister of Bidenomonics with an environmental twist.

But the trouble with Reeves’s approach is that just as she makes plain her direction, much of Europe is heading the other way. Take Finland. Until recently the country was led by Sanna Marin who, with New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern, became the face of the international centre-left. Marin was voted out in April’s general election and as of this week Petteri Orpo runs a four-party coalition including the populist Finns party, led by Riikka Purra. It is cutting back public spending, especially welfare payments, and has published an agenda with 12 pages devoted to immigration and integration issues and how to stem the number of arrivals.

The centre-right is already in power in neighbouring Sweden, where 27-year-old environment minister Romina Pourmokhtari is rowing back on the more zealous policies of her predecessors. A rebellion against net-zero targets is well under way in the Netherlands and Scholz is backing away from his earlier pledges. France’s Emmanuel Macron has urged the European Union to stop green diktats. Green parties are losing power and momentum across the continent.

The Ukraine war has shown the need for strong defence. Military budgets are rising everywhere. Sweden and Finland have both applied to join Nato and a landmark was reached this week when US Air Force bombers landed in Sweden for the first time in decades. Poland is emerging not just as a humanitarian superpower, hosting Ukrainian refugees, but as one of Europe’s strongest defence players.