As Ursula Von Der Leyen said, it certainly has been a long and winding road – for me especially. I resigned my position at the head of the British Chambers of Commerce in March 2016, under pressure from No10 for having had the temerity to suggests at our national conference that Britain could do well outside the EU – and might well be better off if it were. I resigned to fight the referendum campaign as Chairman of the Vote Leave Business Council. I sat on the Campaign Committee with Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.
Smelling a rat in the Theresa May’s Brexit plans, I co-founded and co-chaired “Leave means Leave”. I organised and led the march to Leave. When it became clear that neither this, nor the actions of the ERG MPs would achieve the removal of the ardently remain administration of May and Hammond and the remain Parliament, I then stood and won a seat as a Brexit Party MEP. That European Parliament made clear that a Tory Party which failed to deliver a proper Brexit would face extinction – so regime change followed. I chose to recommend people vote for Boris Johnson in the general election then spent my remaining months in the European Parliament as a Conservative MEP. If Brexit was to be delivered, given what we knew of what had gone before, it would be necessary to have a pro-Brexit administration and a large majority in Parliament.
It is easy to forget how close Brexiteers came to failure under Theresa May. Her deal very nearly passed. Britain would have been tied in the EU web in perpetuity and likely drawn back in. The decision to support Boris was a gamble and would lead to considerable personal discomfort for me, having stood for the European Parliament saying the Tories could not be trusted on Europe. But I decided that Boris Johnson would be as good as his word. Why?
He was dealt a very bad hand given Theresa May’s deal but succeeded immediately on removing the Northern Ireland (NI) backstop and – most importantly – removing us from the Customs Union. Had this latter not been done Liz Truss would not have been able to do the brilliant job of establishing 61 roll over trade agreements in less than a year. In fact, trade agreements would have been out of the question.
Accidents of history
The UK can now sign trade deals around the world, parliament now has sovereignty over its lawmaking and the courts have jurisdiction restored.
I have laid out the story thus far only to emphasise what a tortuous and perverse journey that Brexit has been, littered with unintended consequences but seemingly destined to succeed.
Had the Remainers not been so dogged in their opposition to Theresa May’s defeatist Brexit plan, the Brexiteer rebels would not have been able to stop her. She’s probably still be Prime Minister now, having signed a sham Brexit that would have kept as an EU vassal state.
Had European elections not taken place when they did – with a brilliant campaign fought by Farage via a Brexit Party he dreamed up only a few weeks earlier – Boris would not have become PM and Brexit would have been lost.
Had Coronavirus not put fear of the Brexit project into perspective, the EU would have continued to operate its successful fifth column to undermine government efforts in favour of the EU.
The unhappy legacy of Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement
So what are we left with? A Withdrawal Agreement signed when Boris Johnson was still weak and in a minority government. Its continued existence means that the Conservative Party cannot wholly fulfil its manifesto commitments to remove the ECJ from our affairs as it will still have sway over citizens rights, nor to take the whole of the U.K. out of the EU, as we will have partially left behind NI. There remain questions about the extent to which the EU can use the leverage of the NI protocol to control our policy on state aid – and the scope of this. Michael Gove may address this in his separate negotiations to clarify the Withdrawal Agreement. But it’s still there.
That’s why Boris Johnson’s deal cannot be said to be a Canada deal. Canada was not required by the EU to give certain citizens special status, nor to partially secede Nova Scotia to the EU. Canada also did not cede a proportion of its fisheries to the EU under international protocols, as has our government. So it’s more Canada Minus than Canada Plus.
But none of this means that the trade arrangement is a bad deal. On the contrary the deal is very good in many ways and Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Lord Frost, Oliver Lewis and the negotiating team are to be congratulated on a creditable outcome and tireless effort under the most difficult of circumstances. Just as Liz Truss and her team have done what many said was impossible on trade roll overs, with deeper and better deals to come, the negotiating teams have in less than a year, negotiated something that would have normally taken the EU years to negotiate.
So what are we left with? Tariff and quota-free trade in goods and agriculture. Of course this sounds good to free trade British ears – but in practise it suits German and French manufactures and as they sell more to us in this area than we do to them. As for services, we have gained nothing. But plus ca change: there was no real single market in services within the EU itself even when we were a member.
So we are left with a better trade deal than any other that the EU have signed. Our extraction from the Single Market and Customs Union means we have sovereignty – which was the main point of Brexit.
So the UK can now sign trade deals around the world, parliament now has sovereignty over its lawmaking and the courts have jurisdiction restored. And yes, it is compromised by ECJ involvement in citizens’ rights and a commitment (the ‘non-regression’ clause) not to backtrack on existing law relating to environment, social and employment matters.
Fishing
We appear to have taken back a proportion of what the EU was given by Edward Heath – although it is still not clear in the agreement where this has been established. To be clear: we have not taken back our entire fisheries. We are not like Norway, as the PM had promised. But then again, fisheries are a very small proportion of our economy – and the majority of fish caught by our fleet is currently sold to the EU. It is also true that British fishermen, who are not blameless, flogged their quota to continentals and there is a strong case for prohibiting this in future.
Northern Ireland
There is no doubt that Northern Ireland has become semi detached from the U.K. under this deal – in defiance of the 1801 Act of Union and the Belfast Agreement. The PM has not, as he promised, taken the whole of the U.K. out of the EU. Nor was he ever going to be able to after signing the Withdrawl Agreement before he won last year’s election. NI remains in the Single Market. However, it is also true that Northern Ireland was already semi-detached under the Belfast Agreement and could already, given a referendum, choose to leave the U.K. and become part of the Republic. How silly would the government look when history is written if it were to have refused an agreement with the EU and then subsequently NI seceded?
The myth of ‘internatonal law’
It is equally true that international agreements, often known as treaties, are nothing more than agreements for the time being between sovereign states. Few agreements of this kind persist in perpetuity. There is no such thing as international law in that there is no world law-making body, nor a world court or world policeman. The regression clauses should not be allowed to lower the government’s sights on improving productivity and growth. Whitehall hates deregulation of any sort. The EU fear it because it will make the U.K. more competitive – all good reasons to do it and the deal makes it possible.
Defence
Another area of concern is the way in which the deal seems to draw us into defence and defence procurement arrangements – which appear to lead us to lock ourselves into continental projects, institutions and opens up access to U.K. intellectual property. Whitehall continue to pursue this road as if we were not leaving. Ministers should resist it. The same is true of the many joint committees referenced in the deal which pose the danger of institutionalising us as if we had never left.
So yes, there are compromises. There are signs of British defeat – although that was perhaps inevitable given Theresa May’s disastrous legacy and the hand Boris Johnson was dealt. But step back, look at it all, and what do we have?
The world is our oyster. Trade deals in abundance present themselves. London will continue to reign supreme and will go from strength to strength, especially if deregulated. Better access to finance for enterprise and a competitive currency can boost manufacturing which is the greatest potential source of productivity improvement. We are already introducing measures to protect strategic industries, IP and assets. A growth economy will fund better public services.
Yes, the Brexit deal is a Curate’s egg. But many parts of it smell sweet – and I, for one, will be celebrating on New Years Eve, that Great Britain has regained its sovereignty and independence. The success of Brexit will be judged by what Boris Johnson does next. He now has the power to define our future. There is no hiding place.
Comments