Why I reckon Ken will beat Boris

I told Boris early last summer that I thought he would lose his race to be re-elected as Mayor of London. Not out of a wish for him to do so – I like Boris, and Livingstone is almost the living embodiment of everything I dislike about the party of which, god help me, I am a member. Boris huffed and puffed a bit and said ‘Well look, I’m well ahead in the polls’ – and so he was.

But not any more. The latest poll puts the newt-botherer slightly ahead. I do not think that this is a consequence of Boris doing a bad job as mayor, or a sudden disaffection with him. Even though his plans for an airport in Kent are deeply evil.

It is more a case, I reckon, of the London electorate regressing to the mean. That’s what I expected would happen. The horrible truth is that Ken is what they are, really – or a large proportion of them. That’s one of the reasons I don’t live in London.

Livingstone to win by five points, I would guess. More money for Lee Jasper et al.