For Iran, the re-election of Donald Trump in November 2024 was its worst nightmare. Waking up the morning after the US election, Tehran feared President Trump’s unpredictability – and remembered the hard line he’d taken on Iran in the past and his killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020. With Iran already reeling from losing a chunk of its proxy network in 2024, and with its air defences and missiles degraded by Israel, it was in a uniquely vulnerable position.
All of this forced a recalibration. Iran’s tactic changed from rebuffing to killing President Trump with kindness. Tehran decided to weaponise diplomacy to mollify an American president it both feared and loathed – without sacrificing its grand strategy of pushing the United States out of the Middle East and eradicating the State of Israel. Five months later, the result of this recalibration is nuclear negotiations with the man who ordered the elimination of Soleimani.
Iran’s tactic changed from rebuffing to killing President Trump with kindness
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has been laying the groundwork for a deal himself.
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